Sat, Dec 23, 2017·Madison Square Garden, New York
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, New York Rangers 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 110 | 213 | 014 | 337 |
| NYR | 011 | 19 | 112 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:14TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Auston Matthews, Morgan Rielly · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 0:50TORRon HainseyPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, Mitch Marner · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 2:37NYRJimmy VeseyUnassisted · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 11:22TORAuston MatthewsGWGAssists: Zach Hyman, William Nylander · Backhand, 0.18 xG3–1
- P3 11:25NYRJ.T. MillerAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:00NYRMarc Staal: Slashing2 min
- P1 3:00TORZach Hyman: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:01TORRon Hainsey: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 10:21TORRoman Polak: Boarding2 min
- P1 12:01NYRDavid Desharnais: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:31TORMorgan Rielly: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:56NYRRyan McDonagh: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 3:54TORRoman Polak: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:54NYRRick Nash: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:43NYRKevin Shattenkirk: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:20NYRMichael Grabner: Kneeing2 min
- P3 8:33NYRNick Holden: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:36NYRJimmy Vesey: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Desharnais won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Martin – Brown5:52
xG 0.61–0.11 (85%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Marleau – Komarov – Kadri11:38
xG 0.52–0.36 (59%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner7:55
xG 0.42–0.29 (59%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews9:21
xG 0.57–0.50 (53%)attempts 8–13goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Borgman6:46
xG 0.46–0.07 (87%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Rielly14:57
xG 0.86–0.50 (63%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Carrick6:42
xG 0.60–0.29 (68%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Desharnais – Vesey4:57
xG 0.32–0.16 (67%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Grabner – Zuccarello – Hayes6:14
xG 0.32–0.32 (50%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Kreider – Miller – Buchnevich3:38
xG 0.21–0.21 (50%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Miller4:32
xG 0.21–0.27 (44%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Holden9:20
xG 0.45–0.36 (56%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Shattenkirk – Skjei8:58
xG 0.63–0.61 (51%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Smith – McDonagh2:53
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).