Skip to content
Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 23, 2017·Gila River Arena, Glendale

Colorado Avalanche 6, Arizona Coyotes 2

Away

Colorado Avalanche

6

Final

Home

Arizona Coyotes

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 64% of the time.

ARI winsCOL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
COL0134728628
ARI01311318234

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 10:20COLCarl SoderbergAssists: Matt Nieto, Patrik Nemeth · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
  2. P2 11:36COLJ.T. CompherPPAssists: Nikita Zadorov, Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
  3. P2 13:26COLNail YakupovPPGWGAssists: Mark Barberio · Backhand, 0.05 xG3–0
  4. P2 14:06COLMatt NietoAssists: Blake Comeau, Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–0
  5. P2 18:12ARIDerek StepanSHAssists: Clayton Keller · Tip-in, 0.02 xG4–1
  6. P3 8:08ARIDerek StepanSHAssists: Jordan Martinook · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
  7. P3 8:37COLSven AndrighettoPPAssists: Tyson Jost, Colin Wilson · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–2
  8. P3 13:31COLCarl SoderbergAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Mark Barberio · Wrist, 0.20 xG6–2
Penalties (18)
  1. P1 12:17COLTyson Jost: Delaying game face off violation2 min
  2. P1 17:05ARIChristian Dvorak: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 17:26COLErik Johnson: Interference2 min
  4. P1 18:03COLGabriel Landeskog: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 6:01COLColin Wilson: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 8:52ARIZac Rinaldo: Fighting5 min · PPG
  7. P2 8:52COLErik Johnson: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 8:52COLErik Johnson: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 8:52COLNathan MacKinnon: Fighting5 min
  10. P2 8:52ARIJosh Archibald: Fighting5 min
  11. P2 8:52ARIJosh Archibald: Game misconduct10 min
  12. P2 8:52COLNathan MacKinnon: Game misconduct10 min
  13. P2 8:52ARIZac Rinaldo: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min
  14. P2 15:20ARIAnthony Duclair: High sticking double minor4 min
  15. P2 19:58COLNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
  16. P2 19:58ARIKevin Connauton: Slashing2 min
  17. P3 2:56COLTyson Jost: Hooking2 min
  18. P3 7:43ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Hooking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

COL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ARI
46% to win54% to win
← COL attackARI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against MacKinnon
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

COLARI
28Shots on goal34
3.0Expected goals2.2
59Shot attempts72
26Faceoffs won27
7Power plays5
34Penalty minutes40
15Hits21
25Blocked shots11
5Giveaways4
5Takeaways5

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Colorado Avalanche

Forward lines

  1. bestComeau – Soderberg – Nieto6:16

    xG 1.13–0.14 (89%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0

  2. Wilson – Andrighetto – Compher4:57

    xG 0.11–0.12 (48%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0

  3. Yakupov – Kerfoot – Jost2:55

    xG 0.04–0.19 (18%)attempts 1–11goals 0–0

  4. Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen6:22

    xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestJohnson – Zadorov6:51

    xG 0.93–0.03 (97%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0

  2. Johnson – Barberio2:12

    xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0

  3. Nemeth – Zadorov3:28

    xG 0.28–0.07 (79%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0

Arizona Coyotes

Forward lines

  1. bestStepan – Martinook – Duclair3:49

    xG 0.18–0.03 (86%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0

  2. Rinaldo – Archibald – Dvorak5:36

    xG 0.14–0.01 (94%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0

  3. Stepan – Rieder – Duclair4:42

    xG 0.17–0.13 (56%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0

  4. Richardson – Cousins – Martinook4:48

    xG 0.19–0.23 (45%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestDemers – Ekman-Larsson9:50

    xG 0.74–0.36 (67%)attempts 24–6goals 0–1

  2. Connauton – Chychrun2:31

    xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0

  3. Schenn – Connauton8:03

    xG 0.33–0.28 (54%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ARI 2.2 xGCOL 3.0 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ARICOL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 63/100 · #487 of 1271 this seasonSwing 0.89 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
COL 100%5050%50ARI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +23 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 64% of the time.

ARI winsCOL wins

Simulated goal difference (ARI − COL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).