Wed, Dec 27, 2017·Pepsi Center, Denver
Arizona Coyotes 3, Colorado Avalanche 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 112 | 18 | 17 | 327 |
| COL | 18 | 05 | 013 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:54ARITobias RiederAssists: Brendan Perlini, Jakob Chychrun · Snap, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 3:56COLMikko RantanenAssists: Erik Johnson, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 10:34ARIAlex GoligoskiGWGAssists: Clayton Keller · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 15:35ARILawson CrouseAssists: Josh Archibald · Snap, 0.18 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 16:41ARILawson Crouse: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:05COLMatt Nieto: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 19:13COLErik Johnson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 2:37ARINick Cousins: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:59COLNathan MacKinnon: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:49COLNikita Zadorov: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Compher won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestArchibald – Dvorak – Crouse10:35
xG 0.35–0.16 (69%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Stepan – Rieder – Perlini11:30
xG 0.35–0.26 (57%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Domi – Fischer – Keller9:41
xG 0.22–0.20 (52%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Cousins – Martinook – Duclair8:32
xG 0.18–0.35 (34%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Chychrun13:46
xG 0.84–0.33 (72%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson16:24
xG 0.45–0.41 (52%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Schenn – Connauton11:26
xG 0.13–0.25 (35%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:13
xG 0.42–0.38 (53%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
- Wilson – Andrighetto – Compher5:40
xG 0.06–0.06 (48%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Andrighetto – Compher2:09
xG 0.07–0.08 (48%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Yakupov – Kerfoot – Jost4:07
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Nemeth4:04
xG 0.24–0.07 (76%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Barberio – Zadorov3:52
xG 0.13–0.06 (71%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – Barberio2:08
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).