Thu, Dec 28, 2017·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Montréal Canadiens 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 013 | 17 | 012 | 132 |
| TBL | 014 | 110 | 210 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:40MTLBrendan GallagherPPAssists: Charles Hudon, Joe Morrow · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 19:48TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 0:30TBLBrayden PointGWGAssists: Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 4:45TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Ondrej Palat · Snap, 0.11 xG1–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:58MTLTomas Plekanec: Holding2 min
- P1 12:54TBLAlex Killorn: Tripping2 min
- P1 0:00MTLKarl Alzner: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:27TBLAndrej Sustr: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:03MTLJordie Benn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:45MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 3:01MTLNicolas Deslauriers: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 4:08MTLMax Pacioretty: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:45MTLPhillip Danault: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:45TBLJake Dotchin: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:05TBLBrayden Point: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Drouin won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Shaw – Danault9:35
xG 0.32–0.14 (70%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Hudon – Carr6:27
xG 0.13–0.17 (44%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Byron – Gallagher8:29
xG 0.12–0.16 (42%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Galchenyuk – Lehkonen – Drouin7:54
xG 0.26–0.97 (21%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Benn – Morrow9:33
xG 0.43–0.46 (48%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Lernout – Jerabek7:05
xG 0.19–0.25 (43%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Petry – Alzner11:30
xG 0.05–0.96 (5%)attempts 5–9goals 0–2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Palat – Point9:32
xG 0.81–0.39 (67%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Kunitz – Brown – Paquette6:30
xG 0.17–0.04 (83%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Namestnikov11:47
xG 0.37–0.33 (53%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Killorn – Conacher – Gourde6:59
xG 0.08–0.08 (52%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – Sergachev11:03
xG 0.51–0.17 (74%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Hedman – Dotchin13:04
xG 0.58–0.34 (63%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
- Coburn – Sustr9:52
xG 0.46–0.39 (55%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).