Thu, Dec 28, 2017·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Toronto Maple Leafs 7, Arizona Coyotes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 311 | 311 | 111 | 733 |
| ARI | 214 | 112 | 18 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:55TORZach HymanSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 10:58TORAuston MatthewsAssists: William Nylander, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P1 11:25TORMitch MarnerAssists: Tyler Bozak, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–0
- P1 14:15ARIJosh ArchibaldAssists: Jordan Martinook, Luke Schenn · Wrist, 0.28 xG3–1
- P1 15:32ARIBrendan PerliniAssists: Tobias Rieder, Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P2 9:15TORPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–2
- P2 15:13TORWilliam NylanderGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG5–2
- P2 15:23TORPatrick MarleauAssists: Mitch Marner, Leo Komarov · Backhand, 0.15 xG6–2
- P2 18:33ARIJordan MartinookAssists: Tobias Rieder, Jakob Chychrun · Wrist, 0.29 xG6–3
- P3 14:07ARIChristian FischerPPAssists: Clayton Keller, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.39 xG6–4
- P3 17:30TORConnor BrownENAssists: Morgan Rielly, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.69 xG7–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:19TORAndreas Borgman: Interference2 min
- P1 16:55TORConnor Carrick: Interference2 min
- P2 1:37TORRoman Polak: Interference2 min
- P2 1:53TORDominic Moore: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:24ARIMax Domi: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:21TORDominic Moore: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:16ARIAnthony Duclair: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:16TORAndreas Borgman: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:16ARIAnthony Duclair: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:16TORAndreas Borgman: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:45TORConnor Carrick: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Nylander
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Komarov – Brown3:16
xG 0.22–0.03 (90%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Marleau – Komarov – Kadri3:27
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews12:02
xG 0.47–0.51 (48%)attempts 10–10goals 2–0
- Moore – Martin – Brown6:01
xG 0.08–0.30 (21%)attempts 2–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Rielly13:08
xG 0.53–0.40 (57%)attempts 15–12goals 2–0
- Gardiner – Carrick14:56
xG 0.53–0.50 (51%)attempts 12–17goals 1–1
- Polak – Gardiner2:52
xG 0.07–0.06 (55%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Martinook – Duclair9:02
xG 0.51–0.22 (69%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Stepan – Rieder – Perlini10:43
xG 0.56–0.59 (49%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Archibald – Dvorak – Crouse9:46
xG 0.25–0.43 (37%)attempts 10–6goals 0–3
- Domi – Fischer – Keller10:09
xG 0.20–0.39 (34%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Connauton10:58
xG 1.04–0.29 (78%)attempts 22–10goals 2–0
- Demers – Chychrun6:07
xG 0.76–0.16 (83%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson7:53
xG 0.39–0.33 (54%)attempts 10–8goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).