Thu, Dec 28, 2017·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Calgary Flames 2, San Jose Sharks 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 211 | 07 | 012 | 04 | 0 | 234 |
| SJS | 18 | 013 | 110 | 01 | 2 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:22CGYGarnet HathawayAssists: Sam Bennett, Mark Jankowski · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 7:16SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Joe Thornton, Kevin Labanc · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 15:45CGYMikael BacklundPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Mark Giordano · Deflected, 0.31 xG2–1
- P3 12:00SJSTimo MeierAssists: Brent Burns, Brenden Dillon · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. SJS Joe Pavelski scored
- 2. CGY Sean Monahan stopped
- 3. SJS Brent Burns stopped
- 4. CGY Mikael Backlund stopped
- 5. SJS Joonas Donskoi scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:22CGYMatt Stajan: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 11:10SJSMikkel Boedker: Interference2 min
- P1 14:57SJSJoonas Donskoi: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:33CGYJaromir Jagr: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:08CGYSean Monahan: Interference2 min
- P3 8:27SJSJoonas Donskoi: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Jankowski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFerland – Gaudreau – Monahan11:24
xG 0.64–0.29 (69%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk4:54
xG 0.15–0.03 (85%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Jagr – Backlund – Tkachuk5:10
xG 0.13–0.12 (53%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Hathaway – Bennett11:24
xG 0.44–0.51 (46%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Brodie17:26
xG 0.93–0.75 (55%)attempts 20–20goals 1–1
- Giordano – Hamilton17:18
xG 0.51–0.55 (48%)attempts 14–20goals 0–0
- Stone – Kulak7:22
xG 0.17–0.62 (21%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Karlsson – Labanc4:13
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Boedker – Tierney – Meier3:38
xG 0.24–0.03 (90%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Ward – Sorensen – Karlsson4:16
xG 0.12–0.04 (73%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Hansen6:45
xG 0.24–0.18 (57%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Ryan11:06
xG 0.94–0.35 (73%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Burns – Dillon16:38
xG 0.77–0.52 (59%)attempts 26–17goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Braun15:28
xG 0.29–0.66 (31%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).