Fri, Dec 29, 2017·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
New York Islanders 2, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 019 | 119 | 16 | 244 |
| WPG | 212 | 012 | 213 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:32WPGShawn MatthiasAssists: Adam Lowry · Wrist, 0.32 xG0–1
- P1 16:57WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Kyle Connor, Patrik Laine · Snap, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 14:46NYIAnders LeeAssists: John Tavares, Josh Bailey · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 3:01WPGKyle ConnorGWGAssists: Patrik Laine · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 12:03WPGAdam LowryPPAssists: Jacob Trouba, Blake Wheeler · Deflected, 0.16 xG1–4
- P3 16:28NYIAnders LeeAssists: Ryan Pulock · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:29NYIRyan Pulock: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:36WPGPatrik Laine: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:38WPGMathieu Perreault: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:10NYIJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:10NYIJordan Eberle: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P3 7:50WPGBlake Wheeler: Interference2 min
- P3 11:13NYIMathew Barzal: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:57WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Holding2 min
- P3 13:50NYIJosh Bailey: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Eberle – Barzal8:32
xG 1.38–0.74 (65%)attempts 19–15goals 0–1
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee10:03
xG 0.95–0.62 (60%)attempts 15–10goals 2–0
- Bernier – Nelson – Prince6:53
xG 0.47–0.32 (60%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Chimera – Clutterbuck – Cizikas7:48
xG 0.41–0.81 (34%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Pelech11:52
xG 0.77–0.25 (75%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Leddy – Pulock13:49
xG 1.49–1.19 (56%)attempts 23–18goals 1–2
- Seidenberg – Hickey12:31
xG 0.97–1.82 (35%)attempts 14–24goals 1–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLittle – Perreault – Ehlers9:49
xG 1.15–0.69 (62%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Lowry – Armia – Copp5:28
xG 0.43–0.07 (86%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Hendricks – Matthias – Armia2:42
xG 0.09–0.28 (25%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Lowry – Copp – Tanev3:52
xG 0.15–0.58 (21%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Morrissey13:35
xG 1.44–0.78 (65%)attempts 23–13goals 2–1
- Myers – Kulikov13:32
xG 1.49–1.44 (51%)attempts 24–19goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Poolman10:08
xG 0.39–0.83 (32%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).