Sun, Dec 31, 2017·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Vegas Golden Knights 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 04 | 210 | 19 | 323 |
| VGK | 311 | 110 | 210 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:24VGKPierre-Edouard BellemareAssists: Alex Tuch · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 4:17VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Reilly Smith, Deryk Engelland · Slap, 0.17 xG0–2
- P1 13:24VGKErik HaulaAssists: David Perron, Colin Miller · Snap, 0.04 xG0–3
- P2 5:07TORPatrick MarleauAssists: Connor Brown, Leo Komarov · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
- P2 8:26VGKWilliam KarlssonGWGAssists: Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–4
- P2 19:12TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 0:27TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Morgan Rielly, William Nylander · Backhand, 0.25 xG3–4
- P3 6:11VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: William Karlsson, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–5
- P3 18:24VGKWilliam KarlssonENAssists: Reilly Smith, Brayden McNabb · Backhand, 0.71 xG3–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:26VGKBrayden McNabb: Holding2 min
- P1 8:51TORRoman Polak: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:44TORMartin Marincin: Holding2 min
- P2 1:33VGKDavid Perron: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 8:49VGKNate Schmidt: Interference2 min
- P2 15:41TORJake Gardiner: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Marchessault won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nylander – Matthews12:41
xG 0.88–0.43 (67%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Marleau – Komarov – Brown6:45
xG 0.52–0.41 (56%)attempts 5–5goals 1–3
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner10:19
xG 0.16–0.38 (30%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Moore – Martin – Leivo5:53
xG 0.14–0.40 (27%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Rielly12:10
xG 1.07–0.34 (76%)attempts 12–7goals 2–1
- Gardiner – Rielly2:48
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Polak – Gardiner2:21
xG 0.10–0.03 (79%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestLindberg – Bellemare – Nosek8:53
xG 0.63–0.15 (81%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Eakin – Leipsic – Tuch7:10
xG 0.17–0.18 (49%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault11:17
xG 0.80–0.85 (48%)attempts 14–11goals 3–2
- Neal – Perron – Haula12:18
xG 0.28–0.64 (31%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Miller12:28
xG 0.60–0.35 (63%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Engelland – Theodore13:23
xG 0.65–0.62 (51%)attempts 11–9goals 2–1
- McNabb – Schmidt15:43
xG 0.75–0.89 (46%)attempts 16–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).