Sun, Dec 31, 2017·American Airlines Center, Dallas
San Jose Sharks 0, Dallas Stars 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 05 | 012 | 09 | 026 |
| DAL | 217 | 25 | 210 | 632 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:19DALJohn KlingbergGWGAssists: Mattias Janmark, Alexander Radulov · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 15:07DALTyler PitlickAssists: Radek Faksa · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 4:25DALStephen JohnsAssists: Mattias Janmark, Radek Faksa · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 9:33DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: John Klingberg, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–4
- P3 11:05DALDevin ShoreAssists: Jamie Benn, Dan Hamhuis · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–5
- P3 11:55DALTyler PitlickAssists: Radek Faksa, Antoine Roussel · Backhand, 0.19 xG0–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:13SJSJoe Thornton: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 19:31DALGemel Smith: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:52SJSJoonas Donskoi: Interference2 min
- P2 3:59DALBrett Ritchie: Interference2 min
- P2 8:57SJSJustin Braun: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:46SJSTimo Meier: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:46DALEsa Lindell: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:53DALBrett Ritchie: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:52DALAntoine Roussel: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Hertl2:50
xG 0.21–0.08 (72%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Couture – Donskoi – Hertl3:43
xG 0.05–0.04 (54%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Boedker – Tierney – Karlsson4:22
xG 0.01–0.03 (35%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Ward – Boedker – Sorensen4:50
xG 0.08–0.10 (46%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun11:59
xG 0.29–0.08 (79%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Ryan15:14
xG 0.24–0.34 (42%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- Burns – Dillon8:47
xG 0.31–0.47 (40%)attempts 12–9goals 0–3
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRoussel – Pitlick – Faksa7:05
xG 0.95–0.12 (89%)attempts 14–4goals 2–0
- Benn – Seguin – Shore8:45
xG 0.31–0.10 (76%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Spezza – Radulov – Janmark4:58
xG 0.15–0.04 (78%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Spezza – Ritchie – Janmark3:52
xG 0.11–0.01 (89%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohns – Honka13:36
xG 0.50–0.12 (80%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Klingberg – Lindell12:55
xG 0.50–0.19 (73%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Hamhuis – Pateryn15:23
xG 0.62–0.42 (60%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).