Sun, Dec 31, 2017·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Winnipeg Jets 5, Edmonton Oilers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 210 | 217 | 111 | 538 |
| EDM | 09 | 014 | 012 | 035 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:34WPGMarko DanoGWGAssists: Matt Hendricks, Ben Chiarot · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 13:16WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–0
- P2 11:17WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Patrik Laine, Adam Lowry · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–0
- P2 19:57WPGBryan LittleAssists: Josh Morrissey · Tip-in, 0.13 xG4–0
- P3 7:26WPGMathieu PerreaultPPAssists: Joel Armia, Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.50 xG5–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 18:00WPGTyler Myers: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:58WPGMathieu Perreault: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:22EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 6:21EDMZack Kassian: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:21EDMZack Kassian: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLittle – Perreault – Ehlers11:54
xG 0.99–0.30 (76%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Lowry – Armia – Copp14:33
xG 0.70–0.42 (63%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Matthias – Dano6:25
xG 0.37–0.13 (74%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Connor – Laine10:52
xG 0.45–0.54 (46%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Morrissey17:46
xG 1.41–0.40 (78%)attempts 23–17goals 2–0
- Myers – Kulikov15:28
xG 0.79–0.65 (55%)attempts 20–14goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Poolman13:25
xG 0.30–0.27 (52%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Draisaitl – McDavid8:59
xG 0.59–0.19 (76%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Maroon – Nugent-Hopkins – Caggiula3:18
xG 0.05–0.03 (67%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Lucic – McDavid – Puljujarvi4:16
xG 0.15–0.15 (51%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Strome – Slepyshev – Caggiula6:33
xG 0.22–0.28 (44%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Nurse6:14
xG 0.42–0.03 (94%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Russell – Klefbom2:26
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Larsson – Klefbom7:14
xG 0.58–0.47 (55%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).