Mon, Jan 1, 2018·Citi Field, QueensOutdoor game
New York Rangers 3, Buffalo Sabres 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 216 | 010 | 012 | 14 | 342 |
| BUF | 013 | 111 | 18 | 01 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:09NYRPaul CareyAssists: Jesper Fast, Boo Nieves · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 8:20NYRMichael GrabnerAssists: Kevin Hayes, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–0
- P2 0:56BUFSam ReinhartPPAssists: Kyle Okposo, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–1
- P3 0:27BUFRasmus RistolainenAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- OT 2:43NYRJ.T. MillerPPGWGAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Mats Zuccarello · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:38BUFZach Bogosian: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:59NYRBrendan Smith: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:27NYRKevin Hayes: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:37NYRNick Holden: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:39BUFZach Bogosian: Holding2 min
- P2 8:44NYRJ.T. Miller: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 13:57NYRRyan McDonagh: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:15BUFJacob Josefson: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGrabner – Hayes – Miller10:43
xG 1.02–0.37 (73%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Carey – Fast – Nieves8:24
xG 0.42–0.29 (59%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Desharnais – Vesey – Buchnevich9:39
xG 0.40–0.35 (53%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Nash – Zuccarello – Zibanejad10:07
xG 0.09–0.05 (63%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Skjei12:30
xG 0.86–0.02 (98%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Holden12:27
xG 0.48–0.14 (78%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Shattenkirk – Smith11:50
xG 0.27–0.55 (33%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – O'Reilly – Kane11:17
xG 0.53–0.33 (61%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Josefson – Nolan – Larsson7:02
xG 0.03–0.18 (16%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Pominville – Pouliot – Rodrigues7:43
xG 0.16–0.45 (26%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Girgensons – Reinhart – Eichel9:48
xG 0.14–0.68 (17%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Scandella – Ristolainen14:21
xG 0.39–0.38 (51%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Gorges – Beaulieu10:17
xG 0.25–0.36 (41%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Bogosian – McCabe15:11
xG 0.54–0.86 (38%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).