Tue, Jan 2, 2018·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Washington Capitals 5, Carolina Hurricanes 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 27 | 17 | 111 | 11 | 526 |
| CAR | 113 | 18 | 216 | 01 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:21CARVictor RaskUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 6:39WSHAlex ChiassonAssists: Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 12:53WSHDevante Smith-PellyAssists: Jay Beagle, Brooks Orpik · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 8:48WSHDmitry OrlovAssists: Taylor Chorney · Wrist, 0.28 xG3–1
- P2 11:15CARVictor RaskPPAssists: Justin Williams, Jeff Skinner · Snap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 5:40CARElias LindholmAssists: Derek Ryan · Snap, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 7:04CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Sebastian Aho · Deflected, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 12:45WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–4
- OT 1:57WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.11 xG5–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 17:16WSHBrooks Orpik: Boarding2 min
- P2 9:44WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:47CARHaydn Fleury: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:06WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:19CARJaccob Slavin: Interference2 min
- P3 18:05WSHTom Wilson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Smith-Pelly13:32
xG 0.65–0.73 (47%)attempts 9–16goals 2–1
- Beagle – Chiasson – Stephenson8:37
xG 0.38–0.46 (45%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Eller – Connolly – Wilson8:58
xG 0.20–0.47 (29%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Vrana10:58
xG 0.21–0.53 (28%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChorney – Orlov10:26
xG 0.80–0.44 (64%)attempts 10–13goals 2–1
- Carlson – Orlov2:45
xG 0.20–0.11 (64%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Orpik – Bowey11:30
xG 0.44–0.45 (49%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Nordstrom – Rask6:05
xG 0.49–0.17 (75%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- McGinn – Lindholm – Ryan7:56
xG 0.31–0.13 (70%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Williams – Rask – McGinn2:34
xG 0.13–0.03 (79%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Skinner – Di Giuseppe – Wallmark5:06
xG 0.24–0.20 (54%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Hanifin12:34
xG 0.52–0.29 (64%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Slavin – Pesce14:51
xG 0.91–0.71 (56%)attempts 19–11goals 2–2
- Faulk – Fleury13:18
xG 0.66–0.53 (56%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).