Tue, Jan 2, 2018·Pepsi Center, Denver
Winnipeg Jets 2, Colorado Avalanche 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 012 | 016 | 211 | 05 | 244 |
| COL | 08 | 25 | 08 | 15 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:44COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 11:31COLMikko RantanenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Nikita Zadorov · Snap, 0.10 xG0–2
- P3 0:47WPGBlake WheelerPPAssists: Patrik Laine, Josh Morrissey · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 19:27WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Patrik Laine · Slap, 0.19 xG2–2
- OT 4:50COLErik JohnsonGWGAssists: Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:59WPGJacob Trouba: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:04COLPatrik Nemeth: Interference2 min
- P1 15:38WPGJacob Trouba: Elbowing2 min
- P2 1:18COLMark Barberio: Holding2 min
- P2 14:15COLA.J. Greer: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:04COLMark Barberio: Boarding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Jost
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLittle – Perreault – Ehlers11:38
xG 0.49–0.26 (65%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Lowry – Armia – Copp10:35
xG 0.43–0.28 (61%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Wheeler – Connor – Laine12:39
xG 0.44–0.31 (58%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Lowry – Copp – Dano2:24
xG 0.09–0.07 (56%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Kulikov11:23
xG 0.41–0.09 (82%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Morrissey2:10
xG 0.23–0.06 (79%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Myers2:32
xG 0.12–0.07 (63%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestYakupov – Kerfoot – Greer5:31
xG 0.27–0.10 (73%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:39
xG 0.56–0.45 (55%)attempts 12–15goals 2–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Nieto10:35
xG 0.17–0.26 (40%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Wilson – Bourque – Kerfoot2:12
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarberio – Nemeth12:01
xG 0.52–0.25 (68%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Johnson – Zadorov14:12
xG 0.31–0.37 (46%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- Barberio – Zadorov2:29
xG 0.06–0.12 (33%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).