Wed, Jan 3, 2018·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Ottawa Senators 1, Detroit Red Wings 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 014 | 011 | 19 | 00 | 134 |
| DET | 111 | 011 | 012 | 11 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:15DETAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Anthony Mantha, Martin Frk · Backhand, 0.19 xG0–1
- P3 0:39OTTRyan DzingelUnassisted · Snap, 0.22 xG1–1
- OT 0:06DETAndreas AthanasiouGWGAssists: Dylan Larkin · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P2 3:29OTTDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:29DETMike Green: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:30OTTFilip Chlapik: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 13:23DETMike Green: Holding2 min
- P3 10:41OTTDion Phaneuf: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Hoffman – Duchene13:41
xG 0.77–0.66 (54%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Pageau – Chlapik2:24
xG 0.08–0.06 (59%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Burrows – Dumont – Chlapik3:27
xG 0.07–0.15 (31%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Brassard – Stone – Dzingel16:57
xG 0.85–1.03 (45%)attempts 25–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Karlsson – Chabot9:28
xG 0.30–0.26 (54%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Claesson – Ceci5:27
xG 0.15–0.15 (51%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Oduya – Karlsson10:02
xG 0.45–0.62 (42%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Athanasiou – Larkin9:05
xG 0.99–0.17 (85%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Frk – Athanasiou – Mantha6:07
xG 0.74–0.09 (89%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Bertuzzi12:26
xG 0.21–0.50 (30%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Abdelkader – Helm10:44
xG 0.35–0.78 (31%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – DeKeyser16:25
xG 1.42–0.81 (64%)attempts 18–17goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Jensen11:37
xG 0.74–0.34 (68%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Daley – Ouellet2:02
xG 0.33–0.03 (92%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).