Wed, Jan 3, 2018·Madison Square Garden, New York
Chicago Blackhawks 5, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 114 | 112 | 39 | 535 |
| NYR | 16 | 18 | 011 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:09CHIVinnie HinostrozaAssists: Jonathan Toews, Jordan Oesterle · Slap, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 18:09NYRNick HoldenAssists: Paul Carey, Boo Nieves · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 8:56CHINick SchmaltzAssists: Patrick Kane, Ryan Hartman · Deflected, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 11:32NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Mats Zuccarello · Slap, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 2:24CHIPatrick SharpGWGAssists: David Kampf, Alex DeBrincat · Snap, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 19:06CHIJonathan ToewsENAssists: Brandon Saad, Tommy Wingels · Wrist, 0.69 xG4–2
- P3 19:55CHIPatrick KaneENAssists: Ryan Hartman, Nick Schmaltz · Backhand, 0.59 xG5–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:21CHIJonathan Toews: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:02CHIJonathan Toews: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:38CHIBrent Seabrook: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:14CHIJeff Glass: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:46NYRJ.T. Miller: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:38CHILance Bouma: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:22CHIRyan Hartman: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Hartman – Schmaltz11:36
xG 1.15–0.40 (74%)attempts 20–7goals 1–1
- Toews – Saad – Hinostroza10:54
xG 1.04–0.52 (67%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Sharp – DeBrincat – Kampf8:59
xG 0.44–0.31 (59%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Bouma – Wingels – Hayden7:23
xG 0.13–0.14 (49%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Oesterle14:11
xG 1.03–0.19 (85%)attempts 21–7goals 1–1
- Seabrook – Murphy11:08
xG 0.96–0.50 (66%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Franson – Forsling11:11
xG 0.31–0.52 (38%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Nash – Grabner – Hayes11:21
xG 0.50–0.71 (42%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Zibanejad – Miller9:36
xG 0.45–0.72 (38%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Desharnais – Vesey – Buchnevich8:35
xG 0.17–0.47 (27%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Carey – Fast – Nieves6:52
xG 0.15–0.46 (24%)attempts 5–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Shattenkirk2:28
xG 0.17–0.12 (59%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Holden14:45
xG 0.65–0.71 (48%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Smith8:31
xG 0.21–0.67 (24%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).