Fri, Jan 5, 2018·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, New York Islanders 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 013 | 319 | 16 | 438 |
| NYI | 08 | 09 | 014 | 031 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:41PITDaniel SprongGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Dominik Simon · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 3:30PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Phil Kessel · Snap, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 15:50PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Daniel Sprong, Dominik Simon · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–0
- P3 13:28PITDaniel SprongAssists: Justin Schultz, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:05PITConor Sheary: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:09NYIRyan Pulock: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:12NYIJordan Eberle: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:08PITPhil Kessel: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:52PITCarl Hagelin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:46NYIScott Mayfield: Interference2 min
- P3 15:31PITIan Cole: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Barzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Sprong – Simon11:16
xG 1.46–0.05 (96%)attempts 23–2goals 3–0
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Hagelin10:24
xG 0.31–0.21 (59%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Kessel – Guentzel – Sheary4:56
xG 0.26–0.18 (59%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Reaves – Sheahan – Kuhnhackl8:10
xG 0.15–0.37 (29%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Maatta16:24
xG 1.37–0.18 (89%)attempts 23–9goals 2–0
- Hunwick – Oleksiak13:13
xG 0.41–0.47 (47%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Cole – Schultz13:35
xG 0.58–0.73 (44%)attempts 12–20goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Nelson – Barzal5:13
xG 0.43–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Chimera – Prince – Quine2:22
xG 0.19–0.06 (77%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Tavares – Lee – Prince4:15
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Prince2:30
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Pelech3:10
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Hickey – Pulock7:23
xG 0.23–0.20 (53%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Pelech13:47
xG 0.37–0.50 (42%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).