Fri, Jan 5, 2018·United Center, Chicago
Vegas Golden Knights 5, Chicago Blackhawks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 221 | 114 | 28 | 543 |
| CHI | 110 | 213 | 19 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:44VGKAlex TuchAssists: William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 15:49VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Reilly Smith, Nate Schmidt · Slap, 0.08 xG2–0
- P1 18:01CHIVinnie HinostrozaAssists: Brandon Saad, Jonathan Toews · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 5:54VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Reilly Smith, Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
- P2 7:53CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Richard Panik, Gustav Forsling · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 19:07CHINick SchmaltzAssists: Vinnie Hinostroza, Brandon Saad · Slap, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 0:30CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Vinnie Hinostroza, Duncan Keith · Snap, 0.10 xG3–4
- P3 5:33VGKCody EakinAssists: David Perron · Slap, 0.06 xG4–4
- P3 13:53VGKReilly SmithGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:41CHICody Franson: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:31VGKDeryk Engelland: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:26CHINick Schmaltz: Interference2 min
- P2 6:25CHIJohn Hayden: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:25VGKLuca Sbisa: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:39VGKTomas Nosek: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Haula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault11:50
xG 1.00–0.45 (69%)attempts 13–7goals 3–0
- Carrier – Carpenter – Nosek8:13
xG 0.71–0.40 (64%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Perron – Eakin – Tuch2:49
xG 0.20–0.02 (92%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Neal – Haula – Leipsic2:21
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Theodore15:02
xG 1.32–0.39 (77%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- McNabb – Schmidt14:02
xG 0.92–0.64 (59%)attempts 16–11goals 3–3
- Miller – Theodore4:27
xG 0.25–0.02 (93%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Sharp – Panik – Kampf9:39
xG 0.50–0.49 (51%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Bouma – Wingels – Hayden4:39
xG 0.18–0.26 (41%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Toews – Saad – Hinostroza11:17
xG 0.43–0.62 (41%)attempts 10–8goals 2–2
- Kane – Schmaltz – DeBrincat14:24
xG 0.42–1.05 (29%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Keith – Franson2:11
xG 0.07–0.02 (78%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Keith – Oesterle17:18
xG 1.06–1.06 (50%)attempts 17–18goals 3–1
- Franson – Forsling7:48
xG 0.42–0.54 (44%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).