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Ice Lab

Sun, Jan 7, 2018·Nationwide Arena, Columbus

Florida Panthers 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 3 (SO)

Away

Florida Panthers

2

Final

Shootout

Home

Columbus Blue Jackets

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 83% of the time.

CBJ winsFLA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
FLA09112118052244
CBJ115118011043348

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:47CBJNick FolignoPPAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Seth Jones · Snap, 0.51 xG0–1
  2. P2 0:31FLAJonathan HuberdeauPPAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Aleksander Barkov · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–1
  3. P2 17:49CBJPierre-Luc DuboisPPAssists: Seth Jones, Artemi Panarin · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–2
  4. P3 18:26FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Keith Yandle · Snap, 0.25 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. CBJ Artemi Panarin scored
  2. 2. FLA Vincent Trocheck stopped
  3. 3. CBJ Oliver Bjorkstrand stopped
  4. 4. FLA Aleksander Barkov scored
  5. 5. CBJ Boone Jenner stopped
  6. 6. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
  7. 7. CBJ Pierre-Luc Dubois stopped
  8. 8. FLA Nick Bjugstad stopped
  9. 9. CBJ Sonny Milano stopped
  10. 10. FLA Denis Malgin stopped
  11. 11. CBJ Jack Johnson scored
  12. 12. FLA Mike Matheson scored
  13. 13. CBJ Markus Hannikainen stopped
  14. 14. FLA Evgenii Dadonov stopped
  15. 15. CBJ Josh Anderson scored
  16. 16. FLA Jared McCann stopped
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 9:20FLAAaron Ekblad: Slashing2 min · PPG
  2. P1 13:29CBJBoone Jenner: Slashing2 min
  3. P1 19:28CBJSeth Jones: Interference2 min · PPG
  4. P2 4:35FLAMaxim Mamin: Interference2 min
  5. P2 15:22FLAIan McCoshen: Slashing2 min
  6. P2 16:27FLAMark Pysyk: Delaying game2 min · PPG
  7. P3 7:06CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Tripping2 min
  8. P3 17:42CBJTyler Motte: Tripping2 min
  9. P3 17:42FLAMike Matheson: Embellishment2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

FLA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CBJ
46% to win54% to win
← FLA attackCBJ attack →
  1. P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Barkov
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

FLACBJ
44Shots on goal48
3.7Expected goals6.4
87Shot attempts79
45Faceoffs won32
3Power plays4
10Penalty minutes8
19Hits18
11Blocked shots25
3Giveaways6
5Takeaways14

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Florida Panthers

Forward lines

  1. bestBjugstad – Trocheck – Malgin6:46

    xG 0.29–0.05 (85%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0

  2. McCann – Malgin – Mamin2:20

    xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0

  3. Sceviour – McCann – Mamin4:54

    xG 0.02–0.14 (11%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0

  4. Brickley – Bjugstad – Trocheck3:23

    xG 0.14–0.26 (35%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestPysyk – Matheson3:32

    xG 0.50–0.04 (93%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0

  2. Yandle – Pysyk7:37

    xG 0.09–0.07 (56%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0

  3. Petrovic – McCoshen12:35

    xG 0.49–0.52 (48%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0

Columbus Blue Jackets

Forward lines

  1. bestSchroeder – Motte – Hannikainen5:01

    xG 1.37–0.37 (79%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0

  2. Anderson – Panarin – Dubois14:40

    xG 0.70–0.13 (84%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0

  3. Foligno – Sedlak – Milano9:38

    xG 0.32–0.08 (79%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0

  4. Calvert – Jenner – Bjorkstrand12:55

    xG 0.47–0.90 (35%)attempts 14–23goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestSavard – Nutivaara15:54

    xG 1.66–0.60 (73%)attempts 21–20goals 0–0

  2. Jones – Werenski18:07

    xG 0.96–0.25 (79%)attempts 21–16goals 0–0

  3. Johnson – Harrington10:15

    xG 0.42–0.65 (39%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CBJ 6.4 xGFLA 3.7 xG
0246P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CBJFLA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 64/100 · #470 of 1271 this seasonSwing 1.86 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
FLA 100%5050%50CBJ 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +39 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 83% of the time.

CBJ winsFLA wins

Simulated goal difference (CBJ − FLA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).