Sun, Jan 7, 2018·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Detroit Red Wings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 29 | 14 | 211 | 524 |
| DET | 012 | 114 | 110 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:56TBLDan GirardiAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Yanni Gourde · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 14:11TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Dan Girardi, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 3:10DETGustav NyquistAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 19:00TBLYanni GourdeGWGAssists: Alex Killorn, Vladislav Namestnikov · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 3:06DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Anthony Mantha · Slap, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 13:42TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Steven Stamkos · Snap, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 16:05TBLYanni GourdeAssists: Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 16:35TBLBrayden Point: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:35TBLBrayden Point: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:35DETDylan Larkin: Boarding2 min
- P1 16:35DETDylan Larkin: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:16TBLNikita Kucherov: Interference2 min
- P1 18:23TBLVictor Hedman: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:23TBLYanni Gourde: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:23DETTomas Tatar: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:04TBLSteven Stamkos: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:42TBLBraydon Coburn: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paquette won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestCallahan – Palat – Paquette2:28
xG 0.26–0.08 (76%)attempts 7–1goals 0–1
- Kunitz – Stamkos – Kucherov12:14
xG 0.39–0.37 (52%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Callahan – Kucherov – Paquette2:47
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Killorn – Namestnikov – Gourde12:09
xG 0.27–0.50 (35%)attempts 9–12goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Sustr3:03
xG 0.28–0.05 (86%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Stralman – Sergachev10:44
xG 0.59–0.41 (59%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Hedman – Koekkoek11:36
xG 0.29–0.30 (49%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Nyquist – Bertuzzi13:47
xG 0.46–0.25 (65%)attempts 16–7goals 1–1
- Frk – Athanasiou – Mantha3:39
xG 0.21–0.16 (56%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Abdelkader – Helm9:58
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Frk – Mantha – Larkin2:35
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Green8:46
xG 0.34–0.11 (76%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
- Ericsson – Jensen8:35
xG 0.56–0.35 (61%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Green – Ouellet6:26
xG 0.31–0.16 (66%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).