Tue, Jan 9, 2018·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Winnipeg Jets 7, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 213 | 313 | 211 | 737 |
| BUF | 19 | 111 | 214 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:43WPGPatrik LainePPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 14:51BUFJack EichelAssists: Kyle Okposo, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 15:40WPGDustin ByfuglienAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Toby Enstrom · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 1:26WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P2 12:49WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Blake Wheeler, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–1
- P2 15:42WPGNikolaj EhlersPPGWGAssists: Tyler Myers, Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–1
- P2 18:42BUFRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Jack Eichel, Kyle Okposo · Snap, 0.10 xG5–2
- P3 7:08WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Jacob Trouba · Snap, 0.17 xG6–2
- P3 8:31BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Marco Scandella, Ryan O'Reilly · Slap, 0.32 xG6–3
- P3 14:53BUFJack EichelAssists: Kyle Okposo, Rasmus Ristolainen · Slap, 0.19 xG6–4
- P3 18:55WPGJoel ArmiaENAssists: Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.51 xG7–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:47BUFBrendan Guhle: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:02WPGJacob Trouba: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:26BUFJordan Nolan: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:26BUFJordan Nolan: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:26BUFJordan Nolan: Misconduct10 min
- P2 17:27WPGToby Enstrom: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 19:03BUFEvander Kane: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:43WPGDmitry Kulikov: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Josefson won the faceoff against Copp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestMatthias – Armia – Copp11:07
xG 0.67–0.45 (60%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Little – Perreault – Ehlers12:10
xG 0.48–0.32 (60%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
- Wheeler – Connor – Laine11:15
xG 0.46–0.31 (59%)attempts 10–9goals 2–1
- Hendricks – Dano – Roslovic6:01
xG 0.25–0.58 (30%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien13:46
xG 0.59–0.29 (67%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
- Trouba – Morrissey16:19
xG 0.66–0.49 (57%)attempts 13–14goals 3–0
- Myers – Kulikov12:26
xG 0.69–0.85 (45%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Nolan – Eichel2:34
xG 0.20–0.06 (78%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Josefson – Nolan – Larsson3:06
xG 0.18–0.04 (80%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Pominville – O'Reilly – Kane12:04
xG 0.63–0.72 (47%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Wilson – Reinhart – Rodrigues4:33
xG 0.02–0.11 (14%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Ristolainen13:23
xG 0.79–0.50 (61%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen2:48
xG 0.20–0.09 (68%)attempts 2–6goals 1–0
- Bogosian – Beaulieu12:30
xG 0.47–0.49 (49%)attempts 11–10goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).