Tue, Jan 9, 2018·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Chicago Blackhawks 8, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 117 | 514 | 212 | 843 |
| OTT | 08 | 211 | 08 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:51CHIRichard PanikAssists: Michal Kempny, Connor Murphy · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 5:14CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Patrick Kane, David Kampf · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 8:15CHINick SchmaltzPPGWGAssists: Jordan Oesterle, Patrick Kane · Backhand, 0.36 xG3–0
- P2 9:53CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Jordan Oesterle, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.34 xG4–0
- P2 10:35OTTMark StoneUnassisted · Backhand, 0.05 xG4–1
- P2 16:39OTTDerick BrassardAssists: Mark Stone, Cody Ceci · Deflected, 0.07 xG4–2
- P2 17:33CHINick SchmaltzPPAssists: Patrick Sharp, Patrick Kane · Snap, 0.30 xG5–2
- P2 19:07CHIJan RuttaPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Anton Forsberg · Snap, 0.06 xG6–2
- P3 3:24CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Vinnie Hinostroza · Snap, 0.12 xG7–2
- P3 10:01CHIPatrick KanePPAssists: Duncan Keith, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.06 xG8–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 8:27OTTAlexandre Burrows: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:40OTTDerick Brassard: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 14:28CHIJan Rutta: Interference2 min
- P2 17:11OTTZack Smith: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 18:01OTTErik Karlsson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 19:27CHIRichard Panik: Interference2 min
- P3 6:24OTTBen Harpur: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:24CHIMichal Kempny: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:21CHIBrandon Saad: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:08OTTDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 10:38CHIMichal Kempny: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:44OTTMark Stone: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBouma – Wingels – Panik10:25
xG 0.57–0.09 (86%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Toews – Saad – Hinostroza8:54
xG 0.66–0.26 (71%)attempts 17–11goals 2–0
- Sharp – DeBrincat – Kampf9:31
xG 0.15–0.13 (53%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Kane – Hartman – Schmaltz9:57
xG 0.13–0.65 (17%)attempts 5–17goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Oesterle14:13
xG 1.12–0.53 (68%)attempts 22–16goals 2–1
- Murphy – Kempny13:54
xG 0.27–0.14 (67%)attempts 20–8goals 2–0
- Forsling – Rutta11:43
xG 0.14–0.49 (22%)attempts 5–16goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Smith – Pageau7:59
xG 0.25–0.11 (71%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Ryan – Hoffman – Duchene9:16
xG 0.49–0.50 (50%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
- Burrows – Dumont – White4:59
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Brassard – Stone – Dzingel10:34
xG 0.28–0.69 (29%)attempts 11–10goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- bestClaesson – Harpur8:08
xG 0.28–0.16 (64%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Ceci8:41
xG 0.31–0.23 (58%)attempts 5–18goals 0–1
- Claesson – Ceci2:45
xG 0.05–0.06 (46%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).