Fri, Jan 12, 2018·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Calgary Flames 4, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 011 | 39 | 19 | 429 |
| FLA | 012 | 119 | 112 | 243 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:27FLAEvgenii DadonovPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Vincent Trocheck · Slap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 1:00CGYSean MonahanAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Mark Giordano · Slap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 10:38CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Travis Hamonic, Mikael Backlund · Backhand, 0.21 xG2–1
- P2 16:15CGYJohnny GaudreauPPGWGAssists: Sean Monahan, Mikael Backlund · Slap, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 13:03FLAEvgenii DadonovUnassisted · Snap, 0.23 xG3–2
- P3 19:14CGYMikael BacklundENAssists: Matthew Tkachuk · Snap, 0.70 xG4–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:41FLAAaron Ekblad: Tripping2 min
- P1 1:54CGYTJ Brodie: Holding2 min
- P1 8:37FLAAaron Ekblad: Interference2 min
- P1 19:40CGYDavid Rittich: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:47CGYMikael Backlund: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:58FLAJamie McGinn: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 14:58FLAJamie McGinn: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:58CGYTJ Brodie: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:39CGYMark Jankowski: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFerland – Gaudreau – Monahan11:02
xG 0.85–0.37 (69%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Brouwer – Backlund – Tkachuk11:32
xG 0.70–0.47 (60%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Stajan – Lazar – Mangiapane9:21
xG 0.60–0.68 (47%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Hathaway – Bennett11:22
xG 0.69–1.47 (32%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Kulak11:34
xG 0.83–0.34 (71%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Giordano – Hamilton18:02
xG 1.28–1.42 (47%)attempts 16–27goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Brodie15:16
xG 0.76–1.21 (38%)attempts 12–16goals 1–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Brickley – Malgin7:54
xG 1.31–0.17 (89%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov12:48
xG 1.24–0.43 (74%)attempts 21–7goals 1–1
- MacKenzie – Sceviour – Haley5:29
xG 0.26–0.44 (37%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- McGinn – Bjugstad – Trocheck11:28
xG 0.30–1.33 (18%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetrovic – Weegar11:21
xG 0.77–0.11 (88%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Matheson14:37
xG 0.96–0.65 (60%)attempts 19–14goals 0–1
- Yandle – Ekblad15:38
xG 0.46–0.92 (33%)attempts 12–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).