Fri, Jan 12, 2018·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Edmonton Oilers 4, Arizona Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 213 | 05 | 29 | 427 |
| ARI | 210 | 05 | 07 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:03ARIBrad RichardsonAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Jordan Martinook · Backhand, 0.24 xG0–1
- P1 3:17ARIJosh ArchibaldAssists: Christian Dvorak, Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 14:16EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Adam Larsson, Jujhar Khaira · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P1 19:22EDMPatrick MaroonAssists: Oscar Klefbom, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 3:57EDMDarnell NurseGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 19:40EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsENAssists: Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.71 xG4–2
Penalties (2)
- P1 5:48ARIRichard Panik: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:11EDMMilan Lucic: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Draisaitl – McDavid16:37
xG 1.18–0.29 (80%)attempts 19–12goals 2–0
- Lucic – Nugent-Hopkins – Puljujarvi11:50
xG 0.33–0.23 (59%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Strome – Khaira12:18
xG 0.16–0.31 (33%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
- Letestu – Kassian – Caggiula6:13
xG 0.27–0.53 (34%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlefbom – Benning17:45
xG 1.01–0.28 (78%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- Larsson – Nurse17:07
xG 0.73–0.65 (53%)attempts 15–15goals 2–1
- Sekera – Russell17:50
xG 0.19–0.58 (25%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRieder – Domi – Fischer10:55
xG 0.37–0.17 (68%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Richardson – Cousins – Martinook9:38
xG 0.58–0.42 (58%)attempts 8–9goals 1–2
- Archibald – Dvorak – Keller13:47
xG 0.34–0.52 (40%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Stepan – Panik – Perlini12:54
xG 0.24–0.47 (34%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – Chychrun18:35
xG 0.95–0.28 (77%)attempts 18–11goals 2–1
- Demers – Connauton15:00
xG 0.24–0.58 (29%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Ekman-Larsson16:47
xG 0.45–1.19 (27%)attempts 14–17goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).