Sun, Jan 14, 2018·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Calgary Flames 4, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 212 | 012 | 26 | 430 |
| CAR | 010 | 016 | 113 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:01CGYMatt StajanAssists: Curtis Lazar · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 18:47CGYDougie HamiltonGWGAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Micheal Ferland · Snap, 0.08 xG2–0
- P3 3:17CGYDougie HamiltonAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–0
- P3 12:08CGYMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Troy Brouwer, Mikael Backlund · Snap, 0.22 xG4–0
- P3 15:29CARLee StempniakPPAssists: Brock McGinn, Victor Rask · Wrist, 0.44 xG4–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 7:16CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:16CARTrevor van Riemsdyk: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:01CGYDougie Hamilton: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:06CGYMark Jankowski: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:45CGYMark Giordano: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min
- P3 0:45CGYMark Giordano: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:45CARJustin Williams: Instigator2 min
- P3 0:45CARJustin Williams: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:45CARJustin Williams: Misconduct10 min
- P3 2:03CARJordan Staal: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:26CGYGarnet Hathaway: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:01CARVictor Rask: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:04CGYMicheal Ferland: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Hrivik – Lazar7:10
xG 0.57–0.38 (60%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Jankowski – Hathaway – Mangiapane8:05
xG 0.35–0.23 (60%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Backlund – Tkachuk10:21
xG 0.32–0.44 (42%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Bennett10:15
xG 0.25–0.84 (23%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Kulak2:01
xG 0.44–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Giordano – Hamilton11:02
xG 0.54–0.20 (73%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Stone – Kulak10:11
xG 0.53–0.35 (60%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestKruger – Nordstrom – Teravainen2:38
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Skinner – Rask5:01
xG 0.13–0.01 (90%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Lindholm – Aho2:11
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Kruger – Nordstrom – Lindholm3:09
xG 0.23–0.19 (54%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Hanifin12:46
xG 0.47–0.27 (63%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Faulk – Slavin13:34
xG 0.69–0.80 (46%)attempts 12–16goals 0–2
- Dahlbeck – Fleury13:30
xG 0.47–0.95 (33%)attempts 16–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).