Sun, Jan 14, 2018·United Center, Chicago
Detroit Red Wings 4, Chicago Blackhawks 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 27 | 011 | 28 | 426 |
| CHI | 010 | 05 | 012 | 027 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:08DETDylan LarkinGWGAssists: Andreas Athanasiou, Tyler Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 6:18DETMike GreenAssists: Anthony Mantha, Gustav Nyquist · Slap, 0.08 xG2–0
- P3 5:46DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Andreas Athanasiou · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–0
- P3 13:37DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Nick Jensen, Martin Frk · Backhand, 0.28 xG4–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:29DETJonathan Ericsson: Interference2 min
- P1 16:32CHIBrandon Saad: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:15CHIGustav Forsling: Interference2 min
- P2 9:58CHINick Schmaltz: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:48DETAndreas Athanasiou: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:43CHIJonathan Toews: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:10DETTomas Tatar: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Athanasiou – Bertuzzi – Larkin5:40
xG 0.12–0.09 (57%)attempts 1–4goals 1–0
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Mantha9:35
xG 0.43–0.54 (44%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Tatar – Frk3:10
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Tatar – Athanasiou – Larkin2:33
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – DeKeyser13:57
xG 0.96–0.28 (77%)attempts 16–16goals 2–0
- Ericsson – Jensen8:06
xG 0.05–0.28 (16%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Green2:23
xG 0.02–0.25 (6%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Saad – Duclair3:01
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Duclair – DeBrincat – Kampf6:20
xG 0.19–0.09 (69%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Kane – Hartman – Schmaltz11:28
xG 0.46–0.41 (53%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Toews – Saad – Hinostroza6:39
xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 12–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestForsling – Rutta11:09
xG 0.65–0.13 (84%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Murphy – Oesterle3:30
xG 0.23–0.08 (74%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Keith – Rutta2:40
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).