Tue, Jan 16, 2018·Madison Square Garden, New York
Philadelphia Flyers 1, New York Rangers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 17 | 09 | 010 | 126 |
| NYR | 38 | 213 | 08 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:06PHIJordan WealAssists: Radko Gudas, Wayne Simmonds · Tip-in, 0.24 xG1–0
- P1 6:30NYRRick NashAssists: Pavel Buchnevich · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 16:50NYRJ.T. MillerPPGWGAssists: Ryan McDonagh, David Desharnais · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–2
- P1 19:50NYRPaul CareySHAssists: Peter Holland · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–3
- P2 10:48NYRMichael GrabnerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–4
- P2 17:28NYRRick NashAssists: Marc Staal · Snap, 0.07 xG1–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:32PHIValtteri Filppula: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 18:05NYRJesper Fast: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:28PHIJakub Voracek: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:50NYRBrady Skjei: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:33NYRJesper Fast: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Weal – Patrick11:12
xG 0.88–0.02 (97%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier4:13
xG 0.11–0.07 (61%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Filppula – Raffl – Konecny4:56
xG 0.18–0.14 (56%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Filppula – Voracek – Raffl6:35
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Provorov16:35
xG 0.77–0.16 (83%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Manning – Gudas13:14
xG 0.54–0.71 (43%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
- MacDonald – Hagg16:01
xG 0.32–0.64 (33%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Nash – Zibanejad – Buchnevich11:02
xG 0.84–0.82 (51%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- Desharnais – Carey – Vesey10:04
xG 0.24–0.26 (48%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Grabner – Holland – Fast12:24
xG 0.33–0.39 (46%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Zuccarello – Miller – Lettieri11:19
xG 0.08–0.25 (23%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Skjei10:08
xG 0.53–0.11 (83%)attempts 6–7goals 3–0
- Smith – Skjei2:24
xG 0.28–0.07 (80%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Holden – Skjei3:51
xG 0.01–0.07 (16%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).