Thu, Jan 18, 2018·Madison Square Garden, New York
Buffalo Sabres 3, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 111 | 111 | 115 | 337 |
| NYR | 112 | 17 | 215 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:24NYRRick NashAssists: Pavel Buchnevich · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 18:41BUFKyle OkposoPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 8:26NYRJ.T. MillerAssists: David Desharnais · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 17:10BUFJustin FalkAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 6:49NYRRick NashAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Nick Holden · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–3
- P3 14:59BUFRasmus RistolainenPPAssists: Kyle Okposo, Jack Eichel · Slap, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 16:02NYRPavel BuchnevichGWGAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Rick Nash · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 10:13BUFCasey Nelson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:49NYRBrendan Smith: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:08BUFCasey Nelson: Holding2 min
- P2 11:21NYRMats Zuccarello: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:56NYRKevin Shattenkirk: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:56BUFSam Reinhart: Embellishment2 min
- P2 16:52BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:52NYRBrendan Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:43NYRBrendan Smith: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 19:21NYRMats Zuccarello: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestNolan – Larsson – Wilson7:30
xG 0.60–0.25 (71%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Pominville – O'Reilly – Kane11:03
xG 0.35–0.35 (50%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Reinhart – Rodrigues11:05
xG 0.02–0.50 (4%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Okposo – Eichel11:08
xG 0.30–1.01 (23%)attempts 10–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Gorges – Nelson9:45
xG 0.23–0.41 (36%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Scandella – Ristolainen17:12
xG 0.68–0.92 (43%)attempts 17–19goals 0–1
- Falk – McCabe16:45
xG 0.52–1.22 (30%)attempts 12–19goals 1–2
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGrabner – Holland – Fast11:34
xG 0.84–0.04 (96%)attempts 19–4goals 0–0
- Nash – Zibanejad – Buchnevich10:04
xG 1.05–0.29 (78%)attempts 11–12goals 3–0
- Desharnais – Carey – Lettieri2:23
xG 0.07–0.01 (91%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Miller – Vesey4:47
xG 0.08–0.10 (45%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Smith13:12
xG 0.88–0.07 (93%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Kampfer – Skjei14:11
xG 0.71–0.37 (66%)attempts 11–18goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Holden15:28
xG 0.79–1.17 (40%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).