Thu, Jan 18, 2018·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 08 | 211 | 011 | 01 | 231 |
| PHI | 09 | 012 | 215 | 11 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:57TORConnor BrownAssists: Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 13:25TORFrederik GauthierAssists: Matt Martin, Jake Gardiner · Snap, 0.26 xG2–0
- P3 1:33PHINolan PatrickUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 3:25PHIWayne SimmondsSHAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Andrew MacDonald · Snap, 0.19 xG2–2
- OT 0:18PHISean CouturierGWGAssists: Travis Konecny, Michal Neuvirth · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 18:01TORZach Hyman: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:59PHIAndrew MacDonald: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:07PHIJori Lehtera: Interference2 min
- P3 8:30TORLeo Komarov: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Komarov – Kadri11:45
xG 0.84–0.18 (83%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Hyman – Brown – Matthews6:49
xG 0.57–0.11 (84%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner12:29
xG 0.57–0.33 (63%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Martin – Brown – Gauthier3:03
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Carrick16:30
xG 0.90–0.29 (76%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Gardiner3:01
xG 0.11–0.09 (55%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Polak – Gardiner3:03
xG 0.04–0.19 (17%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Couturier – Konecny13:13
xG 0.64–0.32 (67%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Voracek – Lehtera – Laughton3:13
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Weal – Patrick9:54
xG 0.25–0.49 (34%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Laughton – Goulbourne2:54
xG 0.00–0.39 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hagg15:47
xG 0.73–0.67 (52%)attempts 14–16goals 0–1
- Gostisbehere – Provorov17:33
xG 0.62–0.74 (45%)attempts 20–16goals 0–1
- Manning – Gudas12:45
xG 0.23–1.05 (18%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).