Thu, Jan 18, 2018·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
St. Louis Blues 4, Ottawa Senators 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 07 | 319 | 111 | 437 |
| OTT | 07 | 16 | 08 | 121 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:13STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Robert Bortuzzo, Paul Stastny · Deflected, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 12:51STLAlex PietrangeloGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 16:53STLBrayden SchennAssists: Alexander Steen, Vince Dunn · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–0
- P2 17:21OTTBobby RyanAssists: Matt Duchene, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–1
- P3 18:42STLAlexander SteenENAssists: Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.69 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 17:35OTTRyan Dzingel: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 5:43STLChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:43OTTMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:57STLChris Thorburn: Boarding2 min
- P2 17:57STLKyle Brodziak: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:57OTTMark Borowiecki: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:17OTTErik Karlsson: Holding2 min
- P2 19:48OTTDerick Brassard: Interference2 min
- P3 15:32STLColton Parayko: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Brodziak – Paajarvi8:18
xG 0.61–0.08 (88%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Steen – Schenn – Jaskin10:58
xG 0.53–0.11 (83%)attempts 17–5goals 1–1
- Stastny – Tarasenko – Barbashev12:33
xG 0.21–0.16 (57%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Sobotka – Berglund – Thompson11:06
xG 0.14–0.27 (35%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Dunn12:48
xG 0.80–0.27 (75%)attempts 16–7goals 2–1
- Bouwmeester – Parayko18:30
xG 0.50–0.27 (65%)attempts 20–12goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Edmundson16:16
xG 0.22–0.20 (52%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Thompson – Pyatt – Smith6:13
xG 0.11–0.10 (51%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
- Brassard – Stone – Dzingel12:54
xG 0.33–0.37 (47%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
- Burrows – Dumont – Chlapik7:56
xG 0.06–0.16 (28%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Ryan – Hoffman – Duchene12:25
xG 0.21–0.40 (35%)attempts 9–15goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Karlsson12:53
xG 0.34–0.16 (67%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Chabot8:05
xG 0.15–0.13 (53%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Phaneuf – Karlsson2:34
xG 0.04–0.03 (56%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).