Thu, Jan 18, 2018·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Arizona Coyotes 2, Nashville Predators 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 06 | 112 | 110 | 01 | 1 | 229 |
| NSH | 012 | 19 | 115 | 03 | 2 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 18:17NSHScott HartnellAssists: Ryan Ellis, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 19:48ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Richard Panik, Derek Stepan · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 13:40ARIBrendan PerliniAssists: Richard Panik, Jason Demers · Backhand, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 17:24NSHRyan EllisAssists: Roman Josi, Nick Bonino · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. ARI Brendan Perlini stopped
- 2. NSH Kyle Turris scored
- 3. ARI Richard Panik stopped
- 4. NSH Ryan Ellis stopped
- 5. ARI Nick Cousins scored
- 6. NSH Kevin Fiala stopped
- 7. ARI Oliver Ekman-Larsson stopped
- 8. NSH Craig Smith scored
Penalties (4)
- P1 18:09NSHColton Sissons: Interference2 min
- P2 1:17ARIBrad Richardson: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 13:47ARIAlex Goligoski: Interference2 min
- OT 4:56NSHKevin Fiala: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Richardson – Cousins – Martinook12:11
xG 0.42–0.42 (50%)attempts 12–11goals 0–2
- Archibald – Dvorak – Keller10:15
xG 0.47–0.52 (47%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Rieder – Domi – Fischer9:37
xG 0.18–0.24 (43%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- Stepan – Panik – Perlini12:36
xG 0.19–0.26 (41%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Connauton10:12
xG 0.21–0.15 (58%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson18:18
xG 0.67–0.63 (51%)attempts 14–20goals 2–1
- Goligoski – Hjalmarsson18:58
xG 0.77–0.89 (46%)attempts 18–21goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestWatson – Salomaki – Sissons10:00
xG 0.29–0.11 (73%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Hartnell – Aberg – Gaudreau5:18
xG 0.27–0.15 (65%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Johansen – Fiala12:51
xG 0.52–0.52 (50%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Bonino – Turris – Smith15:19
xG 0.40–0.81 (33%)attempts 14–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis17:53
xG 0.85–0.35 (71%)attempts 24–13goals 2–1
- Subban – Ekholm2:17
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Emelin – Subban13:06
xG 0.50–0.53 (49%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).