Fri, Jan 19, 2018·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Florida Panthers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 110 | 115 | 111 | 00 | 336 |
| FLA | 29 | 08 | 17 | 12 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:15FLAJamie McGinnAssists: Nick Bjugstad · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 14:22VGKDavid PerronAssists: Brad Hunt, Erik Haula · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 15:55FLAAleksander BarkovSHAssists: Vincent Trocheck · Backhand, 0.24 xG1–2
- P2 6:54VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Shea Theodore, Jonathan Marchessault · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 3:35FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–3
- P3 17:51VGKJames NealAssists: Erik Haula · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- OT 0:40FLAAaron EkbladGWGAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau · Slap, 0.27 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 14:47FLAJared McCann: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:18FLAAlexander Petrovic: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 10:14FLAMicheal Haley: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:53VGKDavid Perron: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Perron – Haula15:29
xG 1.26–0.28 (82%)attempts 23–7goals 2–0
- Eakin – Lindberg – Tuch10:17
xG 0.19–0.10 (65%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Carrier – Carpenter – Bellemare7:33
xG 0.12–0.29 (29%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault14:06
xG 0.36–0.75 (33%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Theodore18:00
xG 0.71–0.43 (62%)attempts 22–13goals 1–0
- Miller – Hunt10:09
xG 0.38–0.21 (65%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Miller – Theodore2:19
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov14:00
xG 0.67–0.52 (56%)attempts 11–17goals 1–1
- McGinn – Bjugstad – McCann9:30
xG 0.14–0.20 (41%)attempts 3–8goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Sceviour – Haley6:37
xG 0.09–0.16 (37%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Brickley – Trocheck11:58
xG 0.32–0.90 (26%)attempts 11–16goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Ekblad16:53
xG 0.69–0.45 (61%)attempts 11–17goals 1–1
- Petrovic – Weegar12:08
xG 0.27–0.37 (42%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Pysyk – Matheson20:51
xG 0.41–0.70 (37%)attempts 8–23goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).