Sun, Jan 21, 2018·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Vegas Golden Knights 5, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 39 | 110 | 114 | 533 |
| CAR | 110 | 010 | 08 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:55VGKPierre-Edouard BellemareAssists: William Carrier, Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 12:20VGKColin MillerPPGWGAssists: David Perron, Erik Haula · Slap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P1 12:59VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: William Karlsson, Brayden McNabb · Snap, 0.07 xG3–0
- P1 19:15CARJaccob SlavinPPAssists: Jeff Skinner, Justin Williams · Snap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 13:42VGKJames NealPPAssists: Brad Hunt, Colin Miller · Backhand, 0.26 xG4–1
- P3 10:20VGKBrendan LeipsicAssists: Colin Miller · Tip-in, 0.12 xG5–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:08VGKPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:34CARJustin Faulk: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 13:12VGKJames Neal: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P1 19:01VGKJonathan Marchessault: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 19:01CARElias Lindholm: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:01VGKJonathan Marchessault: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:33CARJustin Faulk: Interference2 min
- P2 12:04CARVictor Rask: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:30CARJustin Williams: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:51VGKErik Haula: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Ryan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestLindberg – Carrier – Bellemare9:44
xG 0.75–0.07 (91%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault10:49
xG 0.38–0.29 (57%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Eakin – Leipsic – Tuch9:47
xG 0.13–0.29 (31%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Neal – Perron – Haula9:30
xG 0.55–0.81 (40%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Hunt11:29
xG 1.01–0.23 (82%)attempts 19–4goals 1–0
- McNabb – Schmidt13:54
xG 0.40–0.18 (69%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Engelland – Schmidt2:14
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Di Giuseppe – Ryan4:10
xG 0.34–0.11 (75%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Skinner – Ryan8:33
xG 0.35–0.32 (52%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Stempniak – Kruger – Nordstrom4:23
xG 0.12–0.10 (55%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kruger – Nordstrom – Di Giuseppe4:15
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Slavin12:56
xG 1.00–0.03 (97%)attempts 18–2goals 0–0
- Dahlbeck – van Riemsdyk3:16
xG 0.12–0.17 (41%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Faulk – Hanifin2:13
xG 0.02–0.14 (12%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).