Tue, Jan 23, 2018·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 011 | 113 | 011 | 135 |
| PIT | 016 | 210 | 17 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:14CARDerek RyanAssists: Lee Stempniak, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–0
- P2 8:03PITDominik SimonAssists: Sidney Crosby, Conor Sheary · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 9:19PITJean-Sebastien DeaGWGAssists: Bryan Rust, Tom Kuhnhackl · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 11:02PITJake GuentzelAssists: Phil Kessel, Riley Sheahan · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:38CARJeff Skinner: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:01PITDominik Simon: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P1 19:06PITPatric Hornqvist: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:06CARCam Ward: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:43CARJustin Faulk: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 1:43PITPatric Hornqvist: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 9:58PITKris Letang: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Skinner – Ryan12:07
xG 1.00–0.31 (76%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Staal – McGinn – Lindholm5:49
xG 0.35–0.03 (92%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Lindholm6:15
xG 0.35–0.17 (68%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Kruger – Nordstrom – Di Giuseppe4:38
xG 0.07–0.22 (24%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Hanifin13:05
xG 1.27–0.27 (83%)attempts 15–5goals 1–1
- Pesce – Hanifin2:13
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Faulk – Slavin2:44
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Sheary – Simon9:24
xG 0.42–0.08 (85%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Rust – Kuhnhackl – Dea5:35
xG 0.27–0.07 (79%)attempts 3–8goals 1–0
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Hagelin8:43
xG 0.31–0.20 (60%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Kessel2:34
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Maatta15:20
xG 0.80–0.52 (61%)attempts 22–15goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin14:26
xG 0.32–0.43 (42%)attempts 13–14goals 2–0
- Hunwick – Oleksiak14:47
xG 0.48–1.09 (30%)attempts 12–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).