Tue, Jan 23, 2018·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Nashville Predators 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 27 | 012 | 19 | 13 | 431 |
| NSH | 214 | 111 | 06 | 02 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:24TBLChris KunitzUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 7:28NSHRyan EllisPPAssists: Roman Josi, Colton Sissons · Slap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 9:11NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Pontus Aberg, Matt Irwin · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P1 10:48TBLVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Steven Stamkos, Chris Kunitz · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–2
- P2 19:10NSHP.K. SubbanPPAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Johansen · Slap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 17:48TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Slater Koekkoek, Chris Kunitz · Slap, 0.05 xG3–3
- OT 1:45TBLYanni GourdeGWGAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:35TBLCedric Paquette: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:17TBLDan Girardi: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 0:25NSHMiikka Salomaki: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:20TBLTyler Johnson: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:54NSHNick Bonino: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Stamkos – Namestnikov12:45
xG 0.67–0.22 (75%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
- Johnson – Kucherov – Point15:28
xG 0.82–0.55 (60%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
- Killorn – Peca – Gourde10:18
xG 0.31–0.28 (53%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Callahan – Bournival – Paquette8:08
xG 0.24–0.30 (44%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Dotchin14:54
xG 0.75–0.33 (69%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Coburn – Girardi2:09
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Girardi – Koekkoek14:31
xG 0.40–0.34 (54%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestWatson – Salomaki – Sissons8:48
xG 0.48–0.11 (81%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Turris – Smith8:48
xG 0.39–0.52 (43%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Bonino – Jarnkrok – Fiala11:45
xG 0.11–0.52 (18%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Johansen – Aberg – Arvidsson10:27
xG 0.19–0.69 (22%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis16:56
xG 0.75–0.34 (69%)attempts 20–9goals 1–1
- Ekholm – Irwin12:54
xG 0.29–0.45 (39%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Emelin – Subban14:57
xG 0.37–0.72 (34%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).