Tue, Jan 23, 2018·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Vegas Golden Knights 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 114 | 17 | 111 | 332 |
| VGK | 113 | 320 | 25 | 638 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:22VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Deryk Engelland, Jonathan Marchessault · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 15:57CBJMarkus NutivaaraAssists: Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 6:46CBJJosh AndersonAssists: Seth Jones, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 7:59VGKColin MillerAssists: Nate Schmidt, Jonathan Marchessault · Slap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 9:47VGKBrad HuntPPAssists: Shea Theodore, James Neal · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 12:15VGKJames NealGWGAssists: Erik Haula, David Perron · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 9:21VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Shea Theodore, Brad Hunt · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–5
- P3 12:53CBJMatt CalvertAssists: Nick Foligno, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–5
- P3 18:58VGKErik HaulaENAssists: David Perron, Brad Hunt · Wrist, 0.50 xG3–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:32CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Holding2 min
- P1 11:02VGKColin Miller: Holding2 min
- P2 7:07VGKDavid Perron: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:56CBJZach Werenski: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 5:16VGKBrad Hunt: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:11VGKPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:11CBJBoone Jenner: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:53CBJJosh Anderson: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Marchessault won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestAnderson – Panarin – Dubois12:35
xG 0.55–0.27 (67%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Schroeder – Sedlak – Motte2:47
xG 0.07–0.01 (85%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Foligno – Calvert – Wennberg9:14
xG 0.25–0.20 (56%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
- Jokinen – Jenner – Bjorkstrand3:07
xG 0.05–0.12 (30%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Johnson – Savard15:32
xG 0.41–0.45 (48%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
- Jones – Werenski17:55
xG 0.60–0.74 (45%)attempts 22–18goals 1–1
- Harrington – Nutivaara10:08
xG 0.21–0.57 (27%)attempts 6–17goals 1–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault10:50
xG 0.48–0.16 (76%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Eakin – Leipsic – Tuch10:52
xG 0.42–0.14 (75%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Neal – Perron – Haula7:48
xG 0.47–0.26 (64%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Lindberg – Carrier – Bellemare6:15
xG 0.07–0.43 (15%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Theodore10:36
xG 0.53–0.29 (64%)attempts 12–11goals 2–0
- Engelland – Schmidt4:01
xG 0.31–0.15 (67%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Miller – Hunt9:40
xG 0.37–0.25 (60%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).