Tue, Jan 23, 2018·Honda Center, Anaheim
New York Rangers 3, Anaheim Ducks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 218 | 114 | 012 | 344 |
| ANA | 48 | 014 | 29 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:25ANAJT BrownUnassisted · Snap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 11:09NYRRick NashPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 13:23ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P1 15:14NYRRick NashAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P1 16:21ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Josh Manson, Hampus Lindholm · Snap, 0.11 xG2–3
- P1 18:38ANAAdam HenriqueSHGWGAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–4
- P2 15:53NYRMichael GrabnerSHAssists: Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–4
- P3 0:30ANARickard RakellPPAssists: Corey Perry, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–5
- P3 17:39ANARyan GetzlafENAssists: Brandon Montour · Backhand, 0.62 xG3–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:13NYRJimmy Vesey: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:28ANAJakob Silfverberg: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:46NYRMats Zuccarello: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 16:48ANABrandon Montour: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:59NYRPavel Buchnevich: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:37NYRRick Nash: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:29NYRBrendan Smith: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:12NYRJesper Fast: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 7:18ANAOndrej Kase: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Carey – Zuccarello4:29
xG 0.21–0.06 (77%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Miller – Vesey3:54
xG 0.15–0.09 (63%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Carey – Lettieri5:22
xG 0.11–0.16 (41%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Desharnais – Zuccarello – Vesey3:24
xG 0.08–0.16 (34%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – DeAngelo12:09
xG 0.74–0.35 (68%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Staal – Skjei12:52
xG 0.51–0.60 (46%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Holden11:24
xG 0.40–0.51 (44%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Cogliano – Brown9:51
xG 1.03–0.33 (76%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Ritchie10:32
xG 0.37–0.31 (54%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Vermette – Perry – Wagner8:29
xG 0.11–0.29 (27%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Rakell – Kase6:42
xG 0.00–0.48 (0%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm14:16
xG 0.77–0.41 (65%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Fowler – Montour4:03
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Fowler15:02
xG 0.53–0.68 (44%)attempts 13–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).