Tue, Jan 23, 2018·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Winnipeg Jets 5, San Jose Sharks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 36 | 011 | 15 | 11 | 523 |
| SJS | 19 | 214 | 110 | 00 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:18WPGMathieu PerreaultAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Bryan Little · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 4:32WPGJoel ArmiaAssists: Andrew Copp, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P1 11:56WPGBryan LittlePPAssists: Tyler Myers, Mathieu Perreault · Deflected, 0.10 xG3–0
- P1 19:14SJSJoe PavelskiUnassisted · Snap, 0.13 xG3–1
- P2 9:38SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Joel Ward, Brenden Dillon · Slap, 0.12 xG3–2
- P2 13:25SJSChris TierneyPPAssists: Joe Thornton, Brent Burns · Slap, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 11:38WPGJoel ArmiaAssists: Brandon Tanev, Tyler Myers · Snap, 0.02 xG4–3
- P3 15:20SJSTimo MeierAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Joe Pavelski · Backhand, 0.17 xG4–4
- OT 0:18WPGBryan LittleGWGAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Nikolaj Ehlers · Slap, 0.46 xG5–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:13SJSTomas Hertl: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P1 8:13SJSTomas Hertl: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 8:13WPGJacob Trouba: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:17WPGBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:43WPGBlake Wheeler: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:00WPGMathieu Perreault: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:00SJSBrenden Dillon: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:20WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:27SJSTimo Meier: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Meier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – Dano – Roslovic3:26
xG 0.29–0.12 (70%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Armia – Copp – Tanev9:19
xG 0.24–0.10 (70%)attempts 10–4goals 2–0
- Little – Perreault – Ehlers11:22
xG 0.71–0.69 (51%)attempts 20–9goals 1–1
- Wheeler – Roslovic – Laine5:23
xG 0.18–0.29 (38%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Morrissey10:43
xG 0.61–0.08 (89%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Enstrom – Trouba3:59
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Myers – Kulikov2:27
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Boedker4:28
xG 0.41–0.03 (93%)attempts 7–3goals 1–1
- Couture – Labanc – Meier5:57
xG 0.33–0.13 (72%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Meier4:37
xG 0.50–0.33 (61%)attempts 7–3goals 1–1
- Ward – Hansen – Goodrow2:15
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun14:38
xG 0.94–0.09 (91%)attempts 22–8goals 1–0
- Dillon – DeMelo10:52
xG 0.86–0.49 (64%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
- Burns – Ryan16:15
xG 0.16–0.71 (18%)attempts 10–18goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).