Thu, Jan 25, 2018·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Detroit Red Wings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 311 | 17 | 110 | 528 |
| DET | 08 | 06 | 110 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:19CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Connor Murphy, Anthony Duclair · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 5:43CHIAnthony DuclairGWGAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Duncan Keith · Snap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P1 8:47CHIVinnie HinostrozaAssists: Anthony Duclair · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–0
- P2 11:31CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–0
- P3 16:09DETAnthony ManthaPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–1
- P3 19:41CHIAlex DeBrincatENAssists: Ryan Hartman · Wrist, 0.68 xG5–1
Penalties (3)
- P2 14:21DETNiklas Kronwall: Interference2 min
- P3 5:58DETTomas Tatar: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:57CHIArtem Anisimov: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestAnisimov – Wingels – Hartman10:56
xG 0.65–0.31 (68%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Toews – Duclair – DeBrincat11:45
xG 0.78–0.52 (60%)attempts 17–14goals 3–0
- Jurco – Hinostroza – Kampf10:50
xG 0.45–0.19 (70%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Kane – Saad – Schmaltz13:17
xG 0.36–0.32 (53%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Kempny12:48
xG 1.07–0.44 (71%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Keith – Oesterle18:46
xG 0.73–0.40 (64%)attempts 18–17goals 1–0
- Seabrook – Gustafsson13:22
xG 0.58–0.35 (62%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Tatar – Glendening10:52
xG 0.24–0.19 (56%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Tatar – Frk – Turgeon2:14
xG 0.04–0.11 (27%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Mantha15:08
xG 0.55–0.91 (38%)attempts 21–12goals 0–1
- Athanasiou – Bertuzzi – Larkin10:25
xG 0.23–0.65 (26%)attempts 8–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Ericsson – Witkowski4:39
xG 0.25–0.22 (53%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Ouellet3:17
xG 0.14–0.20 (40%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Ouellet – DeKeyser2:37
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).