Thu, Jan 25, 2018·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Calgary Flames 3, Edmonton Oilers 4 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 214 | 07 | 110 | 06 | 1 | 337 |
| EDM | 010 | 214 | 110 | 03 | 2 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:32CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Troy Brouwer, Mikael Backlund · Slap, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 14:21CGYMark GiordanoAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 13:50EDMBrandon DavidsonAssists: Jesse Puljujarvi, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 14:54EDMZack KassianAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Slap, 0.28 xG2–2
- P3 5:16EDMBrandon DavidsonAssists: Ryan Strome · Slap, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 7:50CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Mikael Backlund · Slap, 0.32 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. EDM Michael Cammalleri scored
- 2. CGY Micheal Ferland stopped
- 3. EDM Leon Draisaitl stopped
- 4. CGY Matthew Tkachuk scored
- 5. EDM Connor McDavid scored
- 6. CGY Sean Monahan stopped
Penalties (15)
- P1 4:24EDMJujhar Khaira: Holding2 min
- P1 11:42CGYMatt Stajan: Holding2 min
- P1 14:43EDMZack Kassian: Misconduct10 min
- P1 19:00EDMDarnell Nurse: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 19:00CGYGarnet Hathaway: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 0:22CGYMikael Backlund: Holding2 min
- P2 10:30EDMMichael Cammalleri: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:00CGYGarnet Hathaway: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:36EDMCam Talbot: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
- P3 1:53CGYRyan Lomberg: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:53EDMZack Kassian: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 1:53EDMZack Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:53EDMZack Kassian: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 1:53EDMZack Kassian: Misconduct10 min
- OT 1:16CGYDavid Rittich: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Lazar – Lomberg6:08
xG 0.80–0.13 (86%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan9:13
xG 0.85–0.30 (74%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Backlund – Tkachuk10:57
xG 0.78–0.38 (67%)attempts 10–7goals 2–1
- Jankowski – Hathaway – Bennett9:26
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Brodie16:51
xG 1.72–0.25 (87%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
- Giordano – Hamilton14:33
xG 1.06–0.89 (54%)attempts 18–16goals 1–2
- Brodie – Hamilton2:07
xG 0.04–0.06 (42%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Draisaitl – McDavid6:59
xG 0.60–0.09 (87%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Slepyshev – McDavid – Caggiula2:37
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Maroon – Kassian – Strome6:12
xG 0.18–0.31 (37%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Slepyshev – Draisaitl – McDavid3:55
xG 0.01–0.18 (5%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDavidson – Klefbom6:52
xG 0.58–0.26 (69%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Benning – Auvitu2:17
xG 0.03–0.09 (28%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Sekera – Davidson2:57
xG 0.10–0.28 (26%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).