Thu, Jan 25, 2018·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Buffalo Sabres 4, Vancouver Canucks 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 112 | 18 | 26 | 426 |
| VAN | 09 | 09 | 012 | 030 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:27BUFSam ReinhartGWGAssists: Scott Wilson, Victor Antipin · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 12:49BUFNick BaptisteAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Evan Rodrigues · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–0
- P3 16:37BUFKyle OkposoPPAssists: Marco Scandella, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.54 xG3–0
- P3 17:40BUFJohan LarssonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.51 xG4–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:30VANThomas Vanek: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:28VANAlex Biega: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 13:28BUFZemgus Girgensons: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:47VANJake Virtanen: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 12:34BUFVictor Antipin: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:44VANAlexander Edler: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 16:45BUFEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larsson won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Wilson – Reinhart11:07
xG 0.47–0.12 (80%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Pominville – Kane – Larsson10:31
xG 0.35–0.21 (63%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Eichel11:08
xG 0.17–0.32 (34%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Baptiste – Rodrigues6:32
xG 0.14–0.41 (25%)attempts 2–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Antipin15:16
xG 0.68–0.39 (63%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Scandella – Ristolainen17:47
xG 0.40–0.14 (74%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Falk – Nelson11:11
xG 0.10–0.61 (14%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Boeser4:13
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Baertschi – Horvat – Boeser4:30
xG 0.17–0.08 (68%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Sutter – Granlund2:54
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Vanek – Gagner – Boeser2:23
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBiega – Del Zotto7:00
xG 0.57–0.16 (78%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Tanev8:30
xG 0.17–0.15 (54%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Edler – Stecher15:40
xG 0.40–0.40 (50%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).