Tue, Jan 30, 2018·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Montréal Canadiens 1, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 011 | 010 | 113 | 134 |
| STL | 08 | 114 | 29 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:38STLIvan BarbashevUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P3 5:14STLPatrik BerglundPPGWGAssists: Tage Thompson, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.36 xG0–2
- P3 17:43STLAlexander SteenENAssists: Kyle Brodziak · Slap, 0.57 xG0–3
- P3 18:53MTLCharles HudonPPAssists: Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:29STLJay Bouwmeester: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:24MTLLogan Shaw: Holding2 min
- P2 12:25MTLJeff Petry: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:25MTLCharles Hudon: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 17:26STLColton Parayko: Boarding5 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestFroese – Shaw – de la Rose6:02
xG 0.17–0.07 (72%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Lehkonen10:34
xG 0.48–0.46 (51%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Deslauriers – Galchenyuk – Drouin9:24
xG 0.36–0.37 (49%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Byron – Pacioretty – Hudon10:09
xG 0.12–0.31 (28%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Mete11:08
xG 0.78–0.31 (71%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Morrow – Jerabek14:00
xG 0.39–0.16 (71%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Petry – Schlemko3:04
xG 0.10–0.04 (70%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Schenn – Schwartz12:00
xG 0.75–0.59 (56%)attempts 18–15goals 0–0
- Stastny – Tarasenko – Barbashev10:18
xG 0.23–0.22 (51%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Jaskin7:01
xG 0.12–0.18 (41%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Berglund – Thompson6:39
xG 0.05–0.21 (19%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Parayko13:27
xG 0.35–0.25 (59%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Dunn10:50
xG 0.34–0.50 (41%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Edmundson17:57
xG 0.60–0.98 (38%)attempts 19–24goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).