Tue, Jan 30, 2018·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Winnipeg Jets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 19 | 06 | 09 | 124 |
| WPG | 010 | 215 | 112 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:31TBLMatthew PecaAssists: Brayden Point, Jake Dotchin · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 3:30WPGPatrik LainePPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Dustin Byfuglien · Snap, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 8:35WPGKyle ConnorGWGAssists: Blake Wheeler, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–2
- P3 14:35WPGBryan LittleAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:42WPGDustin Byfuglien: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:43TBLBraydon Coburn: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:55TBLChris Kunitz: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 5:44WPGAndrew Copp: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:27TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Interference2 min
- P3 0:11WPGDustin Byfuglien: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:00TBLLouis Domingue: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 15:15WPGToby Enstrom: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Bournival – Peca7:31
xG 0.43–0.29 (60%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Callahan – Paquette7:50
xG 0.14–0.06 (69%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Namestnikov11:24
xG 0.04–0.15 (20%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Johnson – Gourde – Point11:06
xG 0.96–1.09 (47%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Sergachev2:32
xG 0.40–0.11 (78%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Stralman – Hedman2:26
xG 0.19–0.02 (91%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Stralman – Dotchin2:18
xG 0.11–0.07 (62%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Roslovic – Laine10:38
xG 0.44–0.03 (95%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Little – Perreault – Ehlers11:22
xG 1.06–1.04 (51%)attempts 16–14goals 1–1
- Lowry – Armia – Copp8:18
xG 0.06–0.03 (64%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Connor – Tanev6:03
xG 0.18–0.32 (37%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Morrissey15:44
xG 2.00–1.44 (58%)attempts 28–20goals 2–1
- Enstrom – Byfuglien17:33
xG 0.38–0.04 (91%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Poolman8:50
xG 0.06–0.27 (19%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).