Thu, Feb 1, 2018·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Dallas Stars 4, Arizona Coyotes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 05 | 317 | 13 | 425 |
| ARI | 16 | 04 | 08 | 118 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:06ARIKevin ConnautonAssists: Max Domi, Christian Fischer · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 3:00DALDevin ShoreAssists: Jason Spezza, Dan Hamhuis · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 5:21DALTyler SeguinPPGWGAssists: Devin Shore, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–1
- P2 13:24DALMattias JanmarkAssists: Radek Faksa, Greg Pateryn · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 18:24DALEsa LindellENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.43 xG4–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:46ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:09DALRadek Faksa: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:31DALJulius Honka: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 14:41ARIJakob Chychrun: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:22ARIKevin Connauton: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 10:07ARIBrad Richardson: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:29DALTyler Seguin: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:04DALMattias Janmark: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:48DALJamie Benn: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:09DALEsa Lindell: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:09ARIMax Domi: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:09ARIClayton Keller: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:26ARIJakob Chychrun: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Shore – Smith3:53
xG 0.42–0.01 (97%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Ritchie – Dickinson – Elie5:43
xG 0.11–0.02 (86%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Faksa – Janmark5:48
xG 0.25–0.26 (49%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Benn – Pitlick – Faksa2:20
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Honka9:45
xG 0.54–0.27 (66%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Pateryn – Johns11:20
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell12:58
xG 0.20–0.56 (26%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Panik – Perlini8:16
xG 0.37–0.09 (80%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Rieder – Dvorak – Keller5:37
xG 0.11–0.04 (75%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Richardson – Archibald – Martinook5:33
xG 0.13–0.14 (48%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Cousins – Domi – Fischer4:46
xG 0.18–0.38 (33%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – Chychrun9:12
xG 0.37–0.16 (69%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Ekman-Larsson10:00
xG 0.29–0.24 (55%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Connauton2:14
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).