Sat, Feb 3, 2018·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Calgary Flames 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 112 | 212 | 03 | 01 | 328 |
| CGY | 013 | 214 | 111 | 11 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:40CHINick SchmaltzAssists: Patrick Kane · Slap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 1:53CHIVinnie HinostrozaPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Brent Seabrook · Snap, 0.34 xG2–0
- P2 5:56CGYMatt StajanAssists: Travis Hamonic, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 12:33CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Micheal Ferland, Mark Giordano · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 14:13CHIAnthony DuclairUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 9:50CGYMichael FrolikAssists: Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–3
- OT 0:59CGYSean MonahanGWGAssists: TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–4
Penalties (2)
- P2 1:25CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 18:32CHILance Bouma: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestJurco – Hinostroza – Kampf11:50
xG 0.74–0.28 (72%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Bouma – Wingels – Saad10:10
xG 0.54–0.36 (60%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Toews – Duclair – DeBrincat13:51
xG 0.58–1.04 (36%)attempts 10–24goals 1–1
- Anisimov – Kane – Schmaltz13:32
xG 0.50–1.02 (33%)attempts 13–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – Gustafsson14:46
xG 1.30–0.88 (60%)attempts 18–20goals 0–1
- Murphy – Rutta13:35
xG 0.58–0.40 (59%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Keith – Oesterle23:04
xG 0.48–1.44 (25%)attempts 18–29goals 1–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk16:42
xG 1.14–0.61 (65%)attempts 22–13goals 1–1
- Stajan – Hathaway – Mangiapane2:41
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Stajan – Lazar – Hathaway5:08
xG 0.19–0.11 (64%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Stajan – Brouwer – Bennett2:01
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton21:34
xG 1.38–0.87 (61%)attempts 23–14goals 1–1
- Hamonic – Brodie19:26
xG 1.22–0.93 (57%)attempts 33–19goals 2–0
- Stone – Brodie2:03
xG 0.20–0.19 (52%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).