Mon, Feb 5, 2018·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Nashville Predators 5, New York Islanders 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 218 | 119 | 16 | 14 | 547 |
| NYI | 311 | 19 | 07 | 01 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:55NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Josh Bailey, Anders Lee · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 11:59NSHKevin FialaAssists: Kyle Turris, Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 13:27NSHKevin FialaAssists: Nick Bonino, Ryan Ellis · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P1 14:05NYIRyan PulockAssists: Andrew Ladd, Brock Nelson · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P1 17:03NYICasey CizikasAssists: Jason Chimera · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–3
- P2 3:39NYINick LeddyAssists: Andrew Ladd, Brock Nelson · Slap, 0.02 xG2–4
- P2 16:25NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: Scott Hartnell, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–4
- P3 19:17NSHRyan JohansenAssists: P.K. Subban, Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.40 xG4–4
- OT 3:42NSHRoman JosiGWGAssists: Nick Bonino · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:04NSHMattias Ekholm: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 6:09NYIJason Chimera: Cross checking2 min
- P1 6:09NSHAlexei Emelin: Boarding2 min
- P1 6:31NYIJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:30NSHRoman Josi: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:54NYICasey Cizikas: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 0:08NSHRyan Johansen: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:43NYICasey Cizikas: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:57NSHMattias Ekholm: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Barzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Bonino – Jarnkrok11:01
xG 0.58–0.04 (93%)attempts 8–3goals 1–1
- Turris – Smith – Fiala11:08
xG 0.52–0.35 (60%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Watson – Salomaki – Sissons4:17
xG 0.22–0.09 (71%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Watson – Salomaki – Aberg2:31
xG 0.04–0.01 (75%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Emelin – Weber9:26
xG 0.15–0.11 (57%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis15:08
xG 0.81–1.06 (43%)attempts 19–18goals 1–0
- Subban – Ekholm11:05
xG 0.28–0.73 (28%)attempts 10–9goals 0–3
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Lee – Barzal12:42
xG 1.12–0.84 (57%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
- Ladd – Clutterbuck – Nelson8:10
xG 0.04–0.11 (24%)attempts 2–5goals 2–0
- Chimera – Cizikas – Quine8:44
xG 0.13–0.42 (23%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Bailey – Tavares – Beauvillier9:04
xG 0.07–0.45 (13%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Pulock6:02
xG 0.58–0.26 (69%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Leddy – Aho10:34
xG 0.64–0.47 (58%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Hickey – Pelech6:23
xG 0.36–0.21 (63%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).