Mon, Feb 5, 2018·American Airlines Center, Dallas
New York Rangers 1, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 19 | 012 | 011 | 132 |
| DAL | 021 | 113 | 17 | 241 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:55NYRDavid DesharnaisAssists: Vinni Lettieri, J.T. Miller · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 14:44DALTyler SeguinAssists: Jason Spezza, Alexander Radulov · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 4:05DALMartin HanzalPPGWGAssists: Julius Honka, Esa Lindell · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:17NYRBrendan Smith: Interference2 min
- P1 10:45NYRRick Nash: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:33NYRNick Holden: Delaying game2 min
- P2 5:19DALJulius Honka: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:18DALAlexander Radulov: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:20DALMattias Janmark: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:27NYRTony DeAngelo: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:55NYRTony DeAngelo: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Miller – Lettieri6:40
xG 0.74–0.07 (91%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- McLeod – Carey – Holland5:11
xG 0.21–0.24 (47%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Nash – Zuccarello – Zibanejad10:08
xG 0.28–0.33 (46%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Fast – Miller2:53
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKampfer – Skjei13:24
xG 0.76–0.52 (59%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Smith – DeAngelo12:08
xG 0.39–0.54 (42%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Holden12:19
xG 0.11–0.56 (17%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Benn – Seguin10:09
xG 1.37–0.22 (86%)attempts 26–12goals 0–0
- Roussel – Pitlick – Faksa9:24
xG 0.44–0.06 (88%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Hanzal – Ritchie – Elie6:09
xG 0.11–0.25 (31%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Spezza – Shore – Janmark7:19
xG 0.09–0.64 (13%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell14:47
xG 1.39–0.27 (84%)attempts 30–8goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Pateryn15:55
xG 0.57–0.41 (58%)attempts 19–20goals 0–0
- Johns – Lindell2:21
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).