Tue, Feb 6, 2018·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 110 | 18 | 27 | 425 |
| PIT | 012 | 311 | 215 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:09VGKWilliam KarlssonPPAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Reilly Smith · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 6:34VGKJames NealAssists: Nate Schmidt, David Perron · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 11:08PITRyan ReavesAssists: Riley Sheahan · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 17:24PITIan ColeAssists: Bryan Rust, Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 18:40PITJake GuentzelAssists: Sidney Crosby, Brian Dumoulin · Slap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 3:09PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Phil Kessel · Snap, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 6:20PITPhil KesselGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Carl Hagelin · Snap, 0.11 xG2–5
- P3 6:38VGKRyan CarpenterAssists: Alex Tuch, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–5
- P3 12:01VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:07PITEvgeni Malkin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 12:38VGKReilly Smith: Interference2 min
- P2 0:53PITDominik Simon: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:56VGKNate Schmidt: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 11:35PITDominik Simon: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:59VGKNate Schmidt: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:45VGKErik Haula: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:43VGKColin Miller: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Haula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestCarpenter – Bellemare – Tuch8:43
xG 0.64–0.36 (64%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault11:57
xG 0.74–0.64 (54%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
- Neal – Perron – Haula11:45
xG 0.50–0.69 (42%)attempts 11–13goals 1–2
- Eakin – Lindberg – Leipsic6:17
xG 0.04–0.97 (4%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- McNabb – Schmidt15:48
xG 0.59–0.81 (42%)attempts 19–17goals 2–1
- Engelland – Theodore12:35
xG 0.27–0.52 (34%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Miller – Hunt9:36
xG 0.46–0.85 (35%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Sheahan – Aston-Reese4:14
xG 0.75–0.36 (68%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Malkin – Kessel – Hagelin7:55
xG 0.74–0.37 (67%)attempts 14–8goals 2–2
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel6:02
xG 0.48–0.20 (70%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Reaves – Hagelin – Sheahan2:30
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin14:44
xG 1.17–0.69 (63%)attempts 18–17goals 2–3
- Cole – Oleksiak12:00
xG 0.83–0.40 (67%)attempts 13–11goals 2–0
- Schultz – Maatta14:15
xG 0.82–0.74 (53%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).