Tue, Feb 6, 2018·United Center, Chicago
Calgary Flames 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 06 | 16 | 211 | 323 |
| CHI | 111 | 012 | 113 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:35CHIAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Jordan Oesterle, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 1:10CGYDougie HamiltonAssists: Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P3 16:30CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Michael Stone, TJ Brodie · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 18:09CGYSean MonahanENGWGAssists: Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.72 xG3–1
- P3 19:53CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Artem Anisimov, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:56CGYMicheal Ferland: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 15:06CHIErik Gustafsson: Interference2 min
- P1 15:26CHIBrent Seabrook: Boarding2 min
- P2 1:24CHITomas Jurco: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:53CGYSam Bennett: Interference2 min
- P2 11:58CGYTravis Hamonic: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:57CGYSam Bennett: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 1:35CHIRyan Hartman: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:17CGYDougie Hamilton: Holding2 min
- P3 14:07CGYTroy Brouwer: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:07CHIArtem Anisimov: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Schmaltz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFerland – Gaudreau – Monahan11:01
xG 0.60–0.25 (71%)attempts 19–9goals 2–0
- Brouwer – Jankowski – Bennett4:39
xG 0.02–0.11 (16%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk12:08
xG 0.31–0.43 (42%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Stajan – Lazar – Hathaway4:59
xG 0.02–0.36 (5%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton13:28
xG 0.51–0.36 (58%)attempts 21–13goals 1–0
- Stone – Kulak7:44
xG 0.13–0.28 (32%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Brodie16:33
xG 0.11–0.78 (12%)attempts 7–19goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Saad – Hartman4:48
xG 0.31–0.10 (76%)attempts 13–1goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Schmaltz11:37
xG 0.27–0.14 (66%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Jurco – Hinostroza – Kampf6:25
xG 0.23–0.18 (57%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Toews – Duclair – DeBrincat10:58
xG 0.30–0.43 (42%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – Gustafsson12:14
xG 0.40–0.14 (74%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Kempny – Rutta8:25
xG 0.27–0.44 (38%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Keith – Oesterle15:27
xG 0.33–0.53 (38%)attempts 13–23goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).