Thu, Feb 8, 2018·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Arizona Coyotes 4, Minnesota Wild 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 011 | 114 | 213 | 12 | 440 |
| MIN | 112 | 27 | 06 | 03 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:13MINEric StaalAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 5:54MINMatt CullenAssists: Mathew Dumba, Gustav Olofsson · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 9:59MINMike ReillyAssists: Matt Cullen, Zach Parise · Slap, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 11:30ARINick CousinsAssists: Alex Goligoski, Brad Richardson · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 8:02ARIKevin ConnautonAssists: Derek Stepan, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 19:41ARINick CousinsAssists: Derek Stepan, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
- OT 3:55ARIClayton KellerGWGAssists: Brendan Perlini, Kevin Connauton · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
Penalties (2)
- P1 8:04ARIJordan Martinook: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:18MINMikko Koivu: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Cousins – Martinook9:30
xG 0.41–0.05 (89%)attempts 11–3goals 1–1
- Panik – Archibald – Dvorak8:48
xG 0.36–0.27 (57%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Stepan – Perlini – Keller13:13
xG 0.41–0.54 (43%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Rinaldo – Rieder – Domi8:51
xG 0.28–0.48 (37%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Ekman-Larsson15:24
xG 0.64–0.37 (64%)attempts 19–8goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Connauton16:13
xG 0.64–0.47 (58%)attempts 26–10goals 2–0
- Hjalmarsson – Chychrun14:16
xG 0.45–0.53 (46%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Zucker – Granlund12:30
xG 0.49–0.40 (55%)attempts 13–20goals 0–2
- Staal – Ennis – Niederreiter10:47
xG 0.51–0.44 (54%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Winnik – Foligno – Eriksson Ek11:17
xG 0.14–0.10 (57%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Cullen – Parise – Coyle12:49
xG 0.25–0.62 (29%)attempts 6–18goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon23:43
xG 1.05–0.65 (62%)attempts 20–23goals 1–0
- Prosser – Reilly9:23
xG 0.31–0.46 (40%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Dumba – Olofsson17:53
xG 0.36–0.72 (33%)attempts 12–24goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).