Fri, Feb 9, 2018·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Detroit Red Wings 6, New York Islanders 7 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 314 | 010 | 314 | 01 | 639 |
| NYI | 08 | 13 | 516 | 12 | 729 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:13DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 5:12DETMartin FrkAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P1 14:40DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–0
- P2 9:36NYIJordan EberleAssists: Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 3:02NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Thomas Hickey, Adam Pelech · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 7:42DETDarren HelmAssists: Frans Nielsen, Justin Abdelkader · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 9:54DETAnthony ManthaPPAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Henrik Zetterberg · Slap, 0.04 xG5–2
- P3 14:34NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Mathew Barzal · Tip-in, 0.11 xG5–3
- P3 15:28NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Mathew Barzal, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.41 xG5–4
- P3 16:39NYINick LeddyPPAssists: John Tavares, Jordan Eberle · Slap, 0.06 xG5–5
- P3 18:11NYIJosh BaileyPPAssists: John Tavares, Mathew Barzal · Slap, 0.09 xG5–6
- P3 19:31DETMike GreenAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Dylan Larkin · Tip-in, 0.10 xG6–6
- OT 3:15NYIBrock NelsonGWGAssists: Mathew Barzal · Tip-in, 0.21 xG6–7
Penalties (7)
- P1 15:58DETJustin Abdelkader: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:40DETAndreas Athanasiou: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 3:49NYIThomas Hickey: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:39DETJustin Abdelkader: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:39NYIJohnny Boychuk: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:00NYIMathew Barzal: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 13:27DETTyler Bertuzzi: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Nyquist – Mantha11:24
xG 1.00–0.25 (80%)attempts 16–4goals 2–0
- Tatar – Athanasiou – Larkin11:02
xG 0.52–0.39 (57%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Abdelkader – Helm7:33
xG 0.22–0.11 (67%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Glendening – Frk – Bertuzzi5:12
xG 0.17–0.60 (22%)attempts 3–9goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Green14:03
xG 0.58–0.11 (85%)attempts 18–5goals 1–1
- Daley – Ericsson15:52
xG 0.79–0.49 (62%)attempts 15–15goals 2–0
- Jensen – DeKeyser13:54
xG 0.79–0.91 (47%)attempts 18–12goals 1–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Tavares – Lee11:24
xG 0.79–0.57 (58%)attempts 16–9goals 0–2
- Ladd – Clutterbuck – Nelson9:55
xG 0.58–0.46 (56%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Chimera – Cizikas – Johnston6:00
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
- Eberle – Barzal – Beauvillier11:17
xG 0.16–0.35 (31%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Aho13:17
xG 0.38–0.27 (58%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Hickey – Pulock14:02
xG 0.38–0.88 (30%)attempts 8–14goals 1–2
- Boychuk – Leddy11:01
xG 0.16–0.92 (14%)attempts 6–19goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).